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One method of reducing the number and/or severity of vehicle crashes is to warn the driver of a potential crash. The theory is that there will be driving conditions in which the drivers are unaware of a potential crash and a warning system will allow them to, in some manner, avoid the accident or reduce the severity. In an attempt to develop an analytical understanding of Forward Collision Warning systems (FCW) for frontal impacts a 2-d mathematical/kinematic model representing a set of pre-crash vehicle dynamic maneuvers has been built. Different driving scenarios are studied to explore the potential improvement of warning algorithms in terms of headway reduction and minimization of false alarm rates. The results agree with the field data. NHTSA's new NCAP active safety criteria are evaluated using the model. The result from the analysis indicates that the NHTSA criteria may drive higher false alarm rates. Opportunities of minimizing false positive rates are discussed.

Regression models are used to understand the relative fatality risk for drivers in front-front and front-left crashes. The field accident data used for the regressions were extracted by NHTSA from the FARS database for model years 2000-2007 vehicles in calendar years 2002-2008. Multiple logistic regressions are structured and carried out to model a log-linear relationship between risk ratio and the independent vehicle and driver parameters. For front-front crashes, the regression identifies mass ratio, belt use, and driver age as statistically significant parameters (p-values less than 1%) associated with the risk ratio. The vehicle type and presence of the ESC are found to be related with less statistical significance (p-values between 1% and 5%). For front-left crashes the driver risk ratio is also found to have a log-log linear relationship with vehicle mass ratio.