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A simulation-based, system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) method is presented that can handle problems with multiple failure regions and correlated random variables. Copulas are used to represent the correlation. The method uses a Probabilistic Re-Analysis (PRRA) approach in conjunction with a trust-region optimization approach and local metamodels covering each trust region. PRRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability of a design by performing a single Monte Carlo (MC) simulation per trust region. Although PRRA is based on MC simulation, it calculates “smooth” sensitivity derivatives, allowing therefore, the use of a gradient-based optimizer. The PRRA method is based on importance sampling. It provides accurate results, if the support of the sampling PDF contains the support of the joint PDF of the input random variables. The sequential, trust-region optimization approach satisfies this requirement.

We propose a new metamodeling method to characterize the output (response) random process of a dynamic system with random parameters, excited by input random processes. The metamodel can be then used to efficiently estimate the time-dependent reliability of a dynamic system using analytical or simulation-based methods. The metamodel is constructed by decomposing the input random processes using principal components or wavelets and then using a few simulations to estimate the distributions of the decomposition coefficients. A similar decomposition is also performed on the output random process. A kriging model is then established between the input and output decomposition coefficients and subsequently used to quantify the output random process corresponding to a realization of the input random parameters and random processes. What distinguishes our approach from others in metamodeling is that the system input is not deterministic but random.

In this paper a design methodology for automotive heat exchangers has been applied which brings robustness into the design process and helps to optimize the design goals: as to maintain an optimal coolant temperature and to limit the vehicle underhood air temperature within a tolerable limit. The most influential design factors for the heat exchangers which affect the goals have been identified with that process. The paper summarizes the optimization steps necessary to meet the optimal functional goals for the vehicle as mentioned above. Taguchi's [1] Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) methods have been employed to conduct this analysis in a robust way.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. As time progresses, the product may fail due to time-dependent operating conditions and material properties, component degradation, etc. The reliability degradation with time may increase the lifecycle cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended function successfully for a specified time interval. In this work, we consider the first-passage reliability which accounts for the first time failure of non-repairable systems. Methods are available in the literature, which provide an upper bound to the true reliability which may overestimate the true value considerably. Monte-Carlo simulations are accurate but computationally expensive.

Understanding reliability is critical in design, maintenance and durability analysis of engineering systems. A reliability simulation methodology is presented in this paper for vehicle fleets using limited data. The method can be used to estimate the reliability of non-repairable as well as repairable systems. It can optimally allocate, based on a target system reliability, individual component reliabilities using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The algorithm establishes a Pareto front that can be used for optimal tradeoff between reliability and the associated cost. The method uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the system failure rate and reliability as a function of time. The probability density functions (PDF) of the time between failures for all components of the system are estimated using either limited data or a user-supplied MTBF (mean time between failures) and its coefficient of variation.

In this paper, a transient thermal analysis model for Diesel fuel systems is presented. The purpose of this work is to determine the fuel temperature at various locations along the system, especially inside the tank and at the returned fuel inlet to the tank. Due to the fact that the fuel level is continuously changing during any driving condition, the fuel mass inside the tank is also continuously changing. Consequently, the fuel temperature will change even under steady driving or idle conditions, therefore, this problem should be analyzed using transient thermal analysis models. Effective thermal management requires controlling the surface temperature of the fuel tank, fuel lines and the fuel temperature at the fuel return line as well as inside the tank [1, 2]. Based on the thermal analysis results, it is possible to determine the major source of heat input at several locations of the fuel system.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. It also affects the scheduling for preventive maintenance. Reliability usually degrades with time increasing therefore, the lifecycle cost due to more frequent failures which result in increased warranty costs, costly repairs and loss of market share. In a lifecycle cost based design, we must account for product quality and preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability. Quality is a measure of our confidence that the product conforms to specifications as it leaves the factory. For a repairable system, preventive maintenance is scheduled to avoid failures, unnecessary production loss and safety violations. This article proposes a methodology to obtain the optimal scheduling for preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability principles.

In this article we present an approach to identify the system topology using simulation for reliability calculations. The system topology provides how all components in a system are functionally connected. Most reliability engineering literature assumes that either the system topology is known and therefore all failure modes can be deduced or if the system topology is not known we are only interested in identifying the dominant failure modes. The authors contend that we should try to extract as much information about the system topology from failure or success information of a system as possible. This will not only identify the dominant failure modes but will also provide an understanding of how the components are functionally connected, allowing for more complicated analyses, if needed. We use an evolutionary approach where system topologies are generated at random and then tested against failure or success data. The topologies evolve based on how consistent they are with test data.

Carburized parts often see use in powertrain components for the automotive industry. These parts are commonly quenched and tempered after the carburizing process. The present study compared the austempering heat treatment to the traditional quench-and-temper process for carburized parts. Samples were produced from SAE 8620, 4320, and 8822 steels and heat treated across a range of conditions for austempering and for quench-and-tempering. Distortion was examined through the use of Navy C-Ring samples. Microstructure, hardness, and Charpy toughness were also examined. X-ray diffraction was used to compare the residual stress found in the case of the components after the quench-and-temper and the austempering heat treatments. Austempering samples showed less distortion and higher compressive residual stresses, while maintaining comparable hardness values in both case and core. Toughness measurements were also comparable between both processes.

This paper introduces a methodology to calculate confidence bounds for a normal and Weibull distribution using Monte Carlo pivotal statistics. As an example, a ready-to-use lookup table to calculate one-sided lower confidence bounds is established and demonstrated for normal and Weibull distributions. The concept of one-sided lower tolerance limits for a normal distribution was first introduced by G. J. Lieberman in 1958 (later modified by Link in 1985 and Wei in 2012), and has been widely used in the automotive industry because of the easy-to-use lookup tables. Monte Carlo simulation methods presented here are more accurate as they eliminate assumptions and approximations inherent in existing approaches by using random experiments. This developed methodology can be used to generate confidence bounds for any parametric distribution. The ready-to-use table for the one-sided lower tolerance limits for a Weibull distribution is presented.

In today's light-weight vehicles, the strength of spot welds plays an important role in overall product integrity, reliability and customer satisfaction. Naturally, there is a need for a quick and reliable technique to inspect the quality of the welds. In the past, the primary quality control tests for detecting weld defects are the destructive chisel test and peel test [1]. The non-destructive evaluation (NDE) method currently used in industry is based on ultrasonic inspection [2, 3, 4]. The technique is not always successful in evaluating the nugget size, nor is it effective in detecting the so-called “cold” or “stick” welds. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a precise and reliable noncontact NDE method for spot welds. There have been numerous studies in predicting the weld nugget size by considering the spot-weld process [5, 6].

In this paper, the development of random vibration testing schedules for durability design verification of engine mounted products is presented, based on the equivalent fatigue damage concept and the 95th-percentile customer engine usage data for 150,000 miles. Development of the 95th-percentile customer usage profile is first discussed. Following that, the field engine excitation and engine duty cycle definition is introduced. By using a simplified transfer function of a single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system subjected to a base excitation, the response acceleration and stress PSDs are related to the input excitation in PSD, which is the equivalent fatigue damage concept. Also, the narrow-band fatigue damage spectrum (FDS) is calculated in terms of the input excitation PSD based on the Miner linear damage rule, the Rayleigh statistical distribution for stress amplitude, a material's S-N curve, and the Miles approximate solution.

Strain gages have been widely used for measuring strain or deformation. They are very reliable and accurate. However, for application on fabric material, strain gages have their limitations. In this paper, digital image correlation (DIC) is used to measure the deformation around the rear window on a convertible top. The test needed to be non destructive, the vehicle and convertible top could not be damaged. The deformation or strain measured on the fabric was used to estimate the force experienced at the interface between the glass and the fabric during an opening/closing application. A speckle pattern was created on the convertible fabric where deformation was to be measured with washable paint. The image of the measured area was first recorded. The convertible top was then latched down and the fabric was stretched. A second image was recorded again. Based on the two images, the deformation/strain between the two conditions was measured.

Physical modeling has been used by the industry to improve development time and produce a quality product. In this paper, we will describe two methods used in system control to take advantage of the physical model. One method describes a complete transmission physical model with a full system control utilizing co-simulation techniques. Data will be presented, and comparison to vehicle data will be conducted and verified. The second method will illustrate how to utilize the physical model to improve system design and modification. In this method, vehicle data will be used as inputs to the model, the model output will be verified against vehicle output data. The two methods are excellent tools for the Design For Six Sigma process (DFSS design).

This paper will define the process for correlating fatigue based customer duty cycle with laboratory bench test data. The process includes the development of the Median and Design Load-Life curve equations. The Median Load-Life curve is a best fit linear regression; whereas, the Design Load-Life curve incorporates component specific reliability and confidence targets. To account for the statistical distribution of fatigue life, due to sample size, the one-side lower-bound tolerance limit method ( Lieberman, 1958 ) will be utilized. This paper will include a correlation between the predicted design fatigue life and the actual product life.

Environmental concerns and government regulations are factors that have led to an increased focus on fuel economy in the automotive industry. This paper identifies a method used to improve the efficiency of a front-wheel-drive (FWD) automatic transmission. In order to create improvements in large complex systems, it is key to have a large scope, to include as much of the system as possible. The approach taken in this work was to use Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) methodology. This was done to optimize as many of the front-wheel-drive transmission components as possible to increase robustness and efficiency. A focus of robustness, or consistency in torque transformation, is as important as the value of efficiency itself, because of the huge range of usage conditions. Therefore, it was necessary to find a solution of the best transmission component settings that would not depend on specific usage conditions such as temperatures, system pressures, or gear ratio.

Styrene-Butadiene Rubber (SBR), a copolymer of butadiene and styrene, is widely used in the automotive industry due to its high durability and resistance to abrasion, oils and oxidation. Some of the common applications include tires, vibration isolators, and gaskets, among others. This paper characterizes the dynamic behavior of SBR and discusses the suitability of a visco-elastic model of elastomers, known as the Kelvin model, from a mathematical and physical point of view. An optimization algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of the Kelvin model. The resulting model was shown to produce reasonable approximations of measured dynamic stiffness. The model was also used to calculate the self heating of the elastomer due to energy dissipation by the viscous damping components in the model. Developing such a predictive capability is essential in understanding the dynamic behavior of elastomers considering that their dynamic stiffness can in general depend on temperature.

Monte Carlo simulation is a popular tool for reliability assessment because of its robustness and ease of implementation. A major concern with this method is its computational cost; standard Monte Carlo simulation requires quadrupling the number of replications for halving the standard deviation of the estimated failure probability. Efforts to increase efficiency focus on intelligent sampling procedures and methods for efficient calculation of the performance function of a system. This paper proposes a new method to manage cost that views design as a decision among alternatives with uncertain reliabilities. Information from a simulation has value only if it enables the designer to make a better choice among the alternative options. Consequently, the value of information from the simulation is equal to the gain from using this information to improve the decision. A designer can determine the number of replications that are worth performing by using the method.

Reaching a system level reliability target is an inverse problem. Component level reliabilities are determined for a required system level reliability. Because this inverse problem does not have a unique solution, one approach is to tradeoff system reliability with cost and to allow the designer to select a design with a target system reliability, using his/her preferences. In this case, the component reliabilities are readily available from the calculation of the reliability-cost tradeoff. To arrive at the set of solutions to be traded off, one encounters two problems. First, the system reliability calculation is based on repeated system simulations where each system state, indicating which components work and which have failed, is tested to determine if it causes system failure, and second, the task of eliciting and encoding the decision maker's preferences is extremely difficult because of uncertainty in modeling the decision maker's preferences.

In recent trend, there is a huge demand for lightweight chassis frame, which improves fuel efficiency and reduces cost of the vehicle. Stiffness based optimization process is simple and straightforward while durability (life) based optimizations are relatively complex, time consuming due to a two-step (Stress then life) virtual engineering process and complicated loading history. However, durability performances are critical in chassis design, so a process of optimization with simplified approach has been developed. This study talks about the process of chassis frame weight optimization without affecting current durability performance where complex durability load cases are converted to equivalent static loadcases and life targets are cascaded down to simple stress target. Sheet metal gauges and lightening holes are the parameters for optimization studies. The optimization design space is constrained to chassis unique parts.