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Highly automated driving (HAD) is under rapid development and will be available for customers within the next years. However the evidence that HAD is at least as safe as human driving has still not been produced. The challenge is to drive hundreds of millions of test kilometers without incidents to show that statistically HAD is significantly safer. One approach is to let a HAD function run in parallel with human drivers in customer cars to utilize a fraction of the billions of kilometers driven every year. To guarantee safety, the function under test (FUT) has access to sensors but its output is not executed, which results in an open loop problem. To overcome this shortcoming, the proposed method consists of four steps to close the loop for the FUT. First, sensor data from real driving scenarios is fused in a world model and enhanced by incorporating future time steps into original measurements.

In this paper, the development of random vibration testing schedules for durability design verification of engine mounted products is presented, based on the equivalent fatigue damage concept and the 95th-percentile customer engine usage data for 150,000 miles. Development of the 95th-percentile customer usage profile is first discussed. Following that, the field engine excitation and engine duty cycle definition is introduced. By using a simplified transfer function of a single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system subjected to a base excitation, the response acceleration and stress PSDs are related to the input excitation in PSD, which is the equivalent fatigue damage concept. Also, the narrow-band fatigue damage spectrum (FDS) is calculated in terms of the input excitation PSD based on the Miner linear damage rule, the Rayleigh statistical distribution for stress amplitude, a material's S-N curve, and the Miles approximate solution.

Reliability-based design optimization accounts for variation. However, it assumes that statistical information is available in the form of fully defined probabilistic distributions. This is not true for a variety of engineering problems where uncertainty is usually given in terms of interval ranges. In this case, interval analysis or possibility theory can be used instead of probability theory. This paper shows how possibility theory can be used in design and presents a computationally efficient sequential optimization algorithm. The algorithm handles problems with only uncertain or a combination of random and uncertain design variables and parameters. It consists of a sequence of cycles composed of a deterministic design optimization followed by a set of worst-case reliability evaluation loops. A crank-slider mechanism example demonstrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed sequential algorithm.

In reliability design, often, there is scarce data for constructing probabilistic models. It is particularly challenging to model uncertainty in variables when the type of their probability distribution is unknown. Moreover, it is expensive to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the reliability of a system involving such variables. A method for modeling uncertainty by using Polynomial Chaos Expansion is presented. The method requires specifying bounds for statistical summaries such as the first four moments and credible intervals. A constrained optimization problem, in which decision variables are the coefficients of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion approximation, is formulated and solved in order to estimate the minimum and maximum values of a system’s reliability. This problem is solved efficiently by employing a probabilistic re-analysis approach to approximate the system reliability as a function of the moments of the random variables.

An accurate and efficient Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is developed in this paper for limit state-based reliability analysis, especially at system levels, by using a response surface approximation of the failure indicator function. The Moving Least Squares (MLS) method is used to construct the response surface of the indicator function, along with an Optimum Symmetric Latin Hypercube (OSLH) as the sampling technique. Similar to MCS, the proposed method can easily handle implicit, highly nonlinear limit-state functions, with variables of any statistical distributions and correlations. However, the efficiency of MCS can be greatly improved. The method appears to be particularly efficient for multiple limit state and multiple design point problem. A mathematical example and a practical example are used to highlight the superior accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method over traditional reliability methods.

Wind noise has become an important indicator for passenger automobile quality. Several transmission paths can be related to different parts of the vehicle exterior. While the greenhouse (side glasses, windshield, seals & others) often dominates the interior noise level above 500 Hz, the contribution coming from the underbody area usually dominates the interior noise spectrum at lower frequencies. This paper describes a framework of numerical tools which is capable of determining realistic underbody turbulent and acoustic loads being generated for typical driving conditions, as well as performing the noise transmission through underbody panels and the propagation of sound to the drivers ear location.

Factorial analyses of stress concentrations at the bolt thread root based on finite element models are presented in this paper. A full bolted joint including a bolt, a nut, and fastened members were modeled using solid elements. Bolt and bolt threads were meshed in detail in 3-dimensional mode, with their interaction being only the direct load transfer between the bolt and nut. Statistical design of experiments was conducted to identify the factors and two-factor interactions, which may have impact on the stress concentration at the bolt thread root.

Existing methods for design optimization under uncertainty assume that a high level of information is available, typically in the form of data. In reality, however, insufficient data prevents correct inference of probability distributions, membership functions, or interval ranges. In this article we use an engine design example to show that optimal design decisions and reliability estimations depend strongly on uncertainty characterization. We contrast the reliability-based optimal designs to the ones obtained using worst-case optimization, and ask the question of how to obtain non-conservative designs with incomplete uncertainty information. We propose an answer to this question through the use of Bayesian statistics. We estimate the truck's engine reliability based only on available samples, and demonstrate that the accuracy of our estimates increases as more samples become available.

Two models for the forecast of road traffic emissions, independently developed in parallel, are comparatively presented and assessed: EPROG developed by BMW and enlarged by VDA for a national application (Germany) and FOREMOVE, developed for application on European Community scale. The analysis of the methodological character of the two algorithms proves that the models are fundamentally similar with regard to the basic calculation schemes used for the emissions. The same holds true as far as the significant dependencies of the emission factors, and the recognition and incorporation of the fundamental framework referring to traffic important parameters (speeds, mileage and mileage distribution etc) are concerned.

The increasing number of local control units in automotive systems led to growing emphasis on developing and using multiplex systems. For reasons of price and robustness the use of asynchronous and slow multiplex systems is preferred. Since the communication volume now reaches critical dimensions in peak load situations during the use of those systems, new concepts on different communication levels have to be developed. Due to the use of many different message types (wide range of message length) and the statistical dependence of the communication behaviour of control units (e.g. question-answer-combinations), the application of standard methodologies is only partly suitable for a performance analysis of automotive multiplex systems.

The increasing complexity of communication protocols for asynchronous multiplex systems requires the use of simulation during the optimisation of these protocols or the integration of other control units. Consideration of realistic communication behaviour of the connected control units is essential for performance analysis of multiplex systems. For a first pass, the use of simple statistical distributions (e.g. Poisson distribution) is suitable to get some simulation results. A better way to get realistic results is the approximation of empirical communication data through the use of more complex statistical distribution (e.g. mixed Erlang distributions). In this paper several approaches for the approximation of empirical data are presented. Beside simple statistical distributions (with one parameter), the use of more complex statistical distributions is discussed and methods for the identification of their parameters are presented.

The German funded project ARAMiS included work on several demonstrators one of which was a multicore approach on large scale software integration (LSSI) for the automotive domain. Here BMW and Audi intentionally implemented two different integration platforms to gain both experience and real life data on a Hypervisor based concept on one side as well as using only native AUTOSAR-based methods on the other side for later comparison. The idea was to obtain figures on the added overhead both for multicore as well as safety, based on practical work and close-to-production implementations. During implementation and evaluation on one hand there were a lot of valuable lessons learned about multicore in conjunction with safety. On the other hand valuable information was gathered to make it finally possible to set up a cost model for estimation of potential overhead generated by different integration approaches for safety related software functions.

Fatigue life estimation, reliability and durability are important in acquisition, maintenance and operation of vehicle systems. Fatigue life is random because of the stochastic load, the inherent variability of material properties, and the uncertainty in the definition of the S-N curve. The commonly used fatigue life estimation methods calculate the mean (not the distribution) of fatigue life under Gaussian loads using the potentially restrictive narrow-band assumption. In this paper, a general methodology is presented to calculate the statistics of fatigue life for a linear vibratory system under stationary, non-Gaussian loads considering the effects of skewness and kurtosis. The input loads are first characterized using their first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis) and a correlation structure equivalent to a given Power Spectral Density (PSD).

Engineering design-decisions often involve many attributes which can differ in the levels of their importance to the decision maker (DM), while also exhibiting complex statistical relationships. Learning a decision-making policy which accurately represents the DM’s actions has long been the goal of decision analysts. To circumvent elicitation and modeling issues, this process is often oversimplified in how many factors are considered and how complicated the relationships considered between them are. Without these simplifications, the classical lottery-based preference elicitation is overly expensive, and the responses degrade rapidly in quality as the number of attributes increase. In this paper, we investigate the ability of deep preference machine learning to model high-dimensional decision-making policies utilizing rankings elicited from decision makers.