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In the paper some methods are presented, with the corresponding practical examples, related to MonteCarlo (MC) techniques for thermal model/test correlation purposes. The MonteCarlo techniques applied to model correlation are intended to be used as an alternative to empirical ‘manual’ correlation techniques, gradients methods, matrix methods based on least square fit minimization. First of all, Design Of Experiments (DoE) tools are used to determine the model response to uncertain parameters and the confidence level of such a response. A sensitivity map is built, allowing the design of the test to maximize the response of the system to the uncertain parameters. Techniques derived from the extreme statistics are used to extrapolate data beyond test limits, with a sufficient confidence in the queue behaviour.

We present a framework for the robust optimization of the heat flux distribution for an anti-ice electro-thermal ice protection system (AI-ETIPS) and iced airfoil performance analysis under uncertain conditions. The considered uncertainty regards a lack of knowledge concerning the characteristics of the cloud i.e. the liquid water content and the median volume diameter of water droplets, and the accuracy of measuring devices i.e., the static temperature probe, uncertain parameters are modeled as uniform random variables. A forward uncertainty propagation analysis is carried out using a Monte Carlo approach. The optimization framework relies on a gradient-free algorithm (Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) and three different problem formulations are considered in this work. Two bi-objective deterministic optimizations aim to minimize power consumption and either minimize ice formations or the iced airfoil drag coefficient.