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Modern diesel engines used in light-duty transportation applications have peak brake thermal efficiencies in the range of 40-42% for high-load operation with substantially lower efficiencies at realistic road-load conditions. Thermodynamic energy and exergy analysis reveals that the largest losses from these engines are due to combustion irreversibility and heat loss to the coolant, through the exhaust, and by direct convection and radiation to the environment. Substantial improvement in overall engine efficiency requires reducing or recovering these losses. Unfortunately, much of the heat transfer either occurs at relatively low temperatures resulting in large entropy generation (such as in the air-charge cooler), is transferred to low-exergy flow streams (such as the oil and engine coolant), or is radiated or convected directly to the environment.

We propose a procedure by which a two-zone thermodynamic model combined with a flame propagation sub-model can used for predicting the cycle-to-cycle variations of combustion in a spark ignition (SI) engine operating at very lean and high exhaust gas residual conditions. Under such conditions, the variations have been shown to consist of both deterministic and stochastic components. The deterministic component is inherent to the non-linear nature of the combustion efficiency variation with equivalence ratio (or dilution level) while the stochastic component results primarily from noise associated with the parameters (that are inevitable in a mechanical system) that affect combustion. Since the overall dynamics of the instabilities are driven by the low order deterministic component, if a model can be made to capture this component, the stochastic component is easily modeled by adding noise to the parameters.