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This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

The existing vehicle designs exhibit a high level of coupling. For instance the coupling in the suspension and steering systems manifests itself through the change in wheel alignment parameters (WAP) due to suspension travel. This change in the WAP causes directional instability and tire-wear. The approach of the industry to solve this problem has been twofold. The first approach has been optimization of suspension link lengths to reduce the change in WAP to zero. Since this is not possible with the existing architecture, the solution used is the optimization of the spring stiffness K to get a compromise solution for comfort (which requires significant suspension travel and hence a soft spring) and directional stability (which demands least possible change in wheel alignment parameters and hence a stiff spring).

The transportation sector in the United States is a major contributor to global energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission. To assess the future potentials of different technologies in addressing these two issues, we used a family of simulation programs to predict fuel consumption for passenger cars in 2020. The selected technology combinations that have good market potential and could be in mass production include: advanced gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles with automatically-shifting clutched transmissions, gasoline, diesel, and compressed natural gas hybrid electric vehicles with continuously variable transmissions, direct hydrogen, gasoline and methanol reformer fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles with direct ratio drive, and battery electric vehicle with direct ratio drive.

To manage the function of a vehicle's engine, transmission, and related subsystems, almost all modern vehicles make use of one or more electronic controllers running embedded software, henceforth referred to as a Powertrain Controller System or PCS. Fully validating this PCS is a necessary step of vehicle development, and the validation process requires extensive amounts of testing. Within the automotive industry, more and more of this validation testing is being performed using Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) simulators to automate the extensive test sequences. A HIL simulation typically mates the physical PCS to a closed-loop real time computer simulation of a powertrain. Interfacing the physical PCS hardware to a powertrain simulation requires the HIL simulator to have extensive signal input/output (I/O) electronics and simulated actuator electrical loading.

In a recent paper (Hoult & Meador, [1]) a novel method of estimating the costs of parts, and assemblies of parts, was presented. This paper proposed that the metric for increments of cost was the function log (dimension/tolerance). Although such log functions have a history,given in [1], starting with Boltzman and Shannon, it is curious that it arises in cost models. In particular, the thermodynamic basis of information theory, given by Shannon [2], seems quite implausible in the present context. In [1], we called the cost theory “Complexity Theory”, mainly to distinguish it from information theory. A major purpose of the present paper is to present a rigorous argument of how the log function arises in the present context. It happens that the agrument hinges on two key issues: properties of the machine making or assembling the part, and a certain limit process. Neither involves thermodynamic reasoning.