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The drive to reduce particle emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines has reached the stage where the contribution from the lubricant can have a major impact on the total amount of particulate matter (PM). This paper proposes a model to predict the survival rate (unburnt oil divided by oil consumption) of the hydrocarbons from the lubricant consumed in the cylinder. The input data are oil consumption and cylinder temperature versus crank angle. The proposed model was tuned to correlate well with data from a six-cylinder heavy-duty diesel engine that meets the Euro 5 legislation without exhaust gas aftertreatment. The measured (and modelled) oil survival shows a strong correlation with engine power. The maximum oil survival rate measured (19%) was at motoring conditions at high speed. For this engine, loads above 100 kW yielded an oil survival rate of nearly zero.