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We propose a new metamodeling method to characterize the output (response) random process of a dynamic system with random parameters, excited by input random processes. The metamodel can be then used to efficiently estimate the time-dependent reliability of a dynamic system using analytical or simulation-based methods. The metamodel is constructed by decomposing the input random processes using principal components or wavelets and then using a few simulations to estimate the distributions of the decomposition coefficients. A similar decomposition is also performed on the output random process. A kriging model is then established between the input and output decomposition coefficients and subsequently used to quantify the output random process corresponding to a realization of the input random parameters and random processes. What distinguishes our approach from others in metamodeling is that the system input is not deterministic but random.

Despite numerous research efforts, there is no reliable and widely accepted tool for the prediction of erosion prone material surfaces due to collapse of cavitation bubbles. In the present paper an Erosion Aggressiveness Index (EAI) is proposed, based on the pressure loads which develop on the material surface and the material yield stress. EAI depends on parameters of the liquid quality and includes the fourth power of the maximum bubble radius and the bubble size number density distribution. Both the newly proposed EAI and the Cavitation Aggressiveness Index (CAI), which has been previously proposed by the authors based on the total derivative of pressure at locations of bubble collapse (DP/Dt>0, Dα/Dt<0), are computed for a cavitating flow orifice, for which experimental and numerical results on material erosion have been published. The predicted surface area prone to cavitation damage, as shown by the CAI and EAI indexes, is correlated with the experiments.

Optimizing the trade-off between reliability and cost of operating a microgrid, including vehicles as both loads and sources, can be a challenge. Optimal energy management is crucial to develop strategies to improve the efficiency and reliability of microgrids, as well as new communication networks to support optimal and reliable operation. Prior approaches modeled the grid using MATLAB, but did not include the detailed physics of loads and sources, and therefore missed the transient effects that are present in real-time operation of a microgrid. This article discusses the implementation of a physics-based detailed microgrid model including a diesel generator, wind turbine, photovoltaic array, and utility. All elements are modeled as sources in Simulink. Various loads are also implemented including an asynchronous motor. We show how a central control algorithm optimizes the microgrid by trying to maximize reliability while reducing operational cost.

The most recent 2010 emissions standards for heavy-duty engines have established a tailpipe limit of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emissions of 0.20 g/bhp-hr. However, it is projected that even when the entire on-road fleet of heavy-duty vehicles operating in California is compliant with 2010 emission standards, the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) requirement for ambient particulate matter and Ozone will not be achieved without further reduction in NOX emissions. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) funded a research program to explore the feasibility of achieving 0.02 g/bhp-hr NOX emissions.

Understanding reliability is critical in design, maintenance and durability analysis of engineering systems. A reliability simulation methodology is presented in this paper for vehicle fleets using limited data. The method can be used to estimate the reliability of non-repairable as well as repairable systems. It can optimally allocate, based on a target system reliability, individual component reliabilities using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The algorithm establishes a Pareto front that can be used for optimal tradeoff between reliability and the associated cost. The method uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the system failure rate and reliability as a function of time. The probability density functions (PDF) of the time between failures for all components of the system are estimated using either limited data or a user-supplied MTBF (mean time between failures) and its coefficient of variation.

This research paper addresses the ground vehicle reliability prediction process based on a new integrated reliability prediction framework. The integrated stochastic framework combines the computational physics-based predictions with experimental testing information for assessing vehicle reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level. To solve efficiently and accurately the challenges coming from large-size computational mechanics models and high-dimensional stochastic spaces, a HPC simulation-based approach to the reliability problem was implemented.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. It also affects the scheduling for preventive maintenance. Reliability usually degrades with time increasing therefore, the lifecycle cost due to more frequent failures which result in increased warranty costs, costly repairs and loss of market share. In a lifecycle cost based design, we must account for product quality and preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability. Quality is a measure of our confidence that the product conforms to specifications as it leaves the factory. For a repairable system, preventive maintenance is scheduled to avoid failures, unnecessary production loss and safety violations. This article proposes a methodology to obtain the optimal scheduling for preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability principles.

The key words in the marketplace for off-highway vehicles are durability, performance, and efficiency. A manufacturer of these vehicles recognizes that one way to successfully address these needs is by a well thought through electronics design. With the computer sophistication now being incorporated into off-highway vehicles, engineers must work closely to assure electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) of the entire system. A properly established EMC program extending from concept to final design will support each of a product's specified operations and still function as an integrated whole. This paper describes the process for designing the EMC for an off-highway vehicle.

The current system requirements for the power management subsystem and ground combat vehicles for the Future Combat System require higher power and voltages for greater energy efficiency, advanced mobility, lethality and survivability. Efficient and reliable electrical power management is an essential capability within current force ground combat vehicles and will become even more important with the increased electrical power demands of future force vehicles which will exceed the capabilities of onboard power generation/storage technologies. This paper describes how to meet the aforementioned power distribution challenges through the development of a power management software interfaces standard that will provide the flexibility required by various programs and vehicles yet still provide a consistent framework for software development providing a consistent environment for all future Army programs.

This paper attempts to integrate a derivative-free probability analysis method to Reliability-Based Robust Design Optimization (RBRDO). The Eigenvector Dimension Reduction (EDR) method is used for the probability analysis method. It has been demonstrated that the EDR method is more accurate and efficient than the Second-Order Reliability Method (SORM) for reliability and quality assessment. Moreover, it can simultaneously evaluate both reliability and quality without any extra expense. Two practical engineering problems (vehicle side impact and layered bonding plates) are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the EDR method.

In the last decade, considerable advances have been made in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). One assumption in RBDO is that the complete information of input uncertainties are known. However, this assumption is not valid in practical engineering applications, due to the lack of sufficient data. In practical engineering design, information concerning uncertainty parameters is usually in the form of finite samples. Existing methods in uncertainty based design optimization cannot handle design problems involving epistemic uncertainty with a shortage of information. Recently, a novel method referred to as Bayesian Reliability-Based Design Optimization (BRBDO) was proposed to properly handle design problems when engaging both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties [1]. However, when a design problem involves a large number of epistemic variables, the computation task for BRBDO becomes extremely expensive.

Researchers desire to evaluate system reliability uniquely and efficiently. Despite its strong technical demand, little progress has been made on system reliability analysis in the last two decades. Up to now, bound methods for system reliability prediction have been dominant. For system reliability bounds, the second order bound method gives fairly accurate prediction for system reliability assuming that the probabilities of second-order joint events are accurately obtained. Two primary challenges in system reliability analysis are evaluation of the probabilities of second-order joint events and no unique system reliability for design optimization. Firstly, the greatest technical demand is found in an accurate and efficient method to numerically evaluate the probability of a second-order joint event.

This paper presents an innovative approach for quality engineering using the Eigenvector Dimension Reduction (EDR) Method. Currently industry relies heavily upon the use of the Taguchi method and Signal to Noise (S/N) ratios as quality indices. However, some disadvantages of the Taguchi method exist such as, its reliance upon samples occurring at specified levels, results to be valid at only the current design point, and its expensiveness to maintain a certain level of confidence. Recently, it has been shown that the EDR method can accurately provide an analysis of variance, similar to that of the Taguchi method, but is not hindered by the aforementioned drawbacks of the Taguchi method. This is evident because the EDR method is based upon fundamental statistics, where the statistical information for each design parameter is used to estimate the uncertainty propagation through engineering systems.

Elastomers are traditionally designed for use in applications that require specific mechanical properties. Unfortunately, these properties change with respect to many different variables including heat, light, fatigue, oxygen, ozone, and the catalytic effects of trace elements. When elastomeric mounts are designed for NVH use in vehicles, they are designed to isolate specific unwanted frequencies. As the elastomers age however, the desired elastomeric properties may have changed with time. This study looks at the variability seen in new vehicle engine mounts and how the dynamic properties change with respect to miles accumulated on fleet and durability test vehicles.

Automotive catalytic converters must provide a very high level of mechanical and thermal durability to maintain performance during their 100,000 to 150,000 mile life expectancy. The work reported herein characterizes the converter as a base (can) excited spring (mat material) supported mass (substrate). A mat material coupon test apparatus was developed for the purpose of providing parameter data for the converter model in the form of stiffness and material loss factor data as a function of shear deflection across the mat. An intumescent mat material was chosen and its dynamic properties evaluated for a range of converter operating parameters. The mat material response properties were placed into a mat material database as a function of gap bulk density, substrate temperature, and temperature gradient across the mat.

Mat material durability data in the form of fragility curves were generated in a critical temperature region for three intumescent mat materials considered for low temperature converter applications. The mat materials were tested in a tourniquet wrap converter configuration employing a cylindrical ceramic substrate. Prior to developing durability data for these mat materials, the test items were subjected to various environmental thermal and/or vibration aging conditions. Mat material fragility data were generated in terms of the dynamic force required to impose prescribed differential motion between the can and substrate, thereby, subjecting the mat material to a dynamic shearing like that expected during resonant excitation. As expected, it was found that the mat material capacity to resist shearing deformation decreased when the test samples were subjected to 36 hours of low temperature thermal cyclic aging.

An on-line oil consumption measurement system using the SO2 tracer method has characterized automotive gasoline engine oil consumption under various engine operating conditions, including a 200-hour durability test. An oil consumption map of total engine, individual cylinder, and valve train was produced for various speed and load ranges under both steady-state and step-transient operating conditions. The effect of spark timing as an additional engine parameter on the oil consumption was also investigated. Oil consumption maps have enlightened the conventional understanding of oil consumption characteristics and broadened the areas of concern for control technologies. This paper reports the benefit of the on-line oil consumption measurement system, the result of oil consumption history over the durability test, discrete measurement of oil consumption contribution within the engine, and various oil consumption characteristics affected by engine operating conditions.

Emissions from existing diesel-powered urban buses are increasingly scrutinized as local, state, and federal governments require enforcement of more stringent emission regulations and expectations. Currently, visual observation of high smoke levels from diesel-powered equipment is a popular indicator of potential emission problems requiring tune-up or engine maintenance. It is important that bus inspection and maintenance (I/M) operations have a quality control “test” to check engine emissions or diagnose the engine state-of-tune before or after maintenance. Ideally, the “emission test” would be correlated to EPA transient emissions standards, be of short duration, and be compatible with garage procedures and equipment. In support of developing a useful “short-test,” equipment was designed to collect samples of raw exhaust over a short time period for gaseous and particulate emissions.

Reliability and resiliency (R&R) definitions differ depending on the system under consideration. Generally, each engineering sector defines relevant R&R metrics pertinent to their system. While this can impede cross-disciplinary engineering projects as well as research, it is a necessary strategy to capture all the relevant system characteristics. This paper highlights the difficulties associated with defining performance of such systems while using smart microgrids as an example. Further, it develops metrics and definitions that are useful in assessing their performance, based on utility theory. A microgrid must not only anticipate load conditions but also tolerate partial failures and remain optimally operating. Many of these failures happen infrequently but unexpectedly and therefore are hard to plan for. We discuss real life failure scenarios and show how the proposed definitions and metrics are beneficial.

The automotive industry is dramatically changing. Many automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) proposed new prototype models or concept vehicles to promote a green vehicle image. Non-traditional players bring many latest technologies in the Information Technology (IT) industry to the automotive industry. Typical vehicle’s characteristics became wider compared to those of vehicles a decade ago, and they include not only a driving range, mileage per gallon and acceleration rating, but also many features adopted in the IT industry, such as usability, connectivity, vehicle software upgrade capability and backward compatibility. Consumers expect the latest technology features in vehicles as they enjoy in using digital applications in laptops and mobile phones. These features create a huge challenge for a design of a new vehicle, especially for a human-machine-interface (HMI) system.