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The Vehicle Energy Consumption calculation Tool (VECTO) is used for the official calculation and reporting of CO2 emissions of HDVs in Europe. It uses certified input data in the form of energy or torque loss maps of driveline components and engine fuel consumption maps. Such data are proprietary and are not disclosed. Any further analysis of the fleet performance and CO2 emissions evolution using VECTO would require generic inputs or reconstructing realistic component input data. The current study attempts to address this issue by developing a process that would create VECTO input files based as much as possible on publicly available data. The core of the process is a series of models that calculate the vehicle component efficiency maps and produce the necessary VECTO input data. The process was applied to generate vehicle input files for rigid trucks and tractor-trailers of HDV Classes 4, 5, 9 and 10.

The Vehicle Energy Consumption calculation Tool (VECTO) is used in Europe for calculating standardised energy consumption and CO2 emissions from Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDTs) for certification purposes. The tool requires detailed vehicle technical specifications and a series of component efficiency maps, which are difficult to retrieve for those that are outside of the manufacturing industry. In the context of quantifying HDT CO2 emissions, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission received VECTO simulation data of the 2016 vehicle fleet from the vehicle manufacturers. In previous work, this simulation data has been normalised to compensate for differences and issues in the quality of the input data used to run the simulations. This work, which is a continuation of the previous exercise, focuses on the deeper meaning of the data received to understand the factors contributing to energy and fuel consumption.

In 2023, the European Union set more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars: the new fleet-wide average targets became 93.6 g/km for 2025, 49.5 g/km in 2030, going to 0 in 2035. One year away from the 2025 target, this study evaluates what contribution to CO2 reduction was achieved from new conventional vehicles and how to interpret forecasts for future efficiency gains. The European Commission’s vehicle efficiency cost-curves suggest that optimal technology adoption can guarantee up to 50% CO2 reduction by 2025 for conventional vehicles. Official registration data between 2013 and 2022, however, reveal only an average 14% increase in fuel efficiency in standard combustion vehicles, although reaching almost 23% for standard hybrids. The smallest gap between certified emissions and best-case scenarios is of 14 g/km, suggesting that some manufacturers’ declared values are approaching the optimum.