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The Chinese government and industries have proposed strategic plans and policies for automotive renewable-energy transformation in response to China’s commitments to peak the national carbon emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We thus analyze the evolution of carbon emissions from the vehicle fleet in China with our data-driven models based on these plans. Our results indicate that the vehicle life-cycle carbon emissions are appreciable, accounting for 8.9% of the national total and 11.3% of energy combustion in 2020. Commercial vehicles are the primary source of automotive carbon emissions, accounting for about 60% of the vehicle energy cycle. Among these, heavy-duty trucks are the most important, producing 38.99% of the total carbon emissions in the vehicle operation stage in 2020 and 52.18% in 2035.