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Medium trucks constitute a large market segment of the commercial transportation sector, and are also used widely for military tactical operations. Recent technological advances in hybrid powertrains and fuel cell auxiliary power units have enabled design alternatives that can improve fuel economy and reduce emissions dramatically. However, deterministic design optimization of these configurations may yield designs that are optimal with respect to performance but raise concerns regarding the reliability of achieving that performance over lifetime. In this article we identify and quantify uncertainties due to modeling approximations or incomplete information. We then model their propagation using Monte Carlo simulation and perform sensitivity analysis to isolate statistically significant uncertainties. Finally, we formulate and solve a series of reliability-based optimization problems and quantify tradeoffs between optimality and reliability.

Two methods for mitigating unacceptably high HCCI heat-release rates are investigated and compared in this combined experimental/CFD work. Retarding the combustion phasing by decreasing the intake temperature is found to have good potential for smoothing heat-release rates and reducing engine knock. There are at least three reasons for this: 1) lower combustion temperatures, 2) less pressure rise when the combustion is occurring during the expansion stroke, and 3) the natural thermal stratification increases around TDC. However, overly retarded combustion leads to unstable operation with partial-burn cycles resulting in high IMEPg variations and increased emissions. Enhanced natural thermal stratification by increased heat-transfer rates was explored by lowering the coolant temperature from 100 to 50°C. This strategy substantially decreased the heat-release rates and lowered the knocking intensity under certain conditions.