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This article presents strategies for evaluating the mean, variance, and failure probability of a response variable given measurements subject to both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. We focus on a case in which standard sensor calibration techniques cannot be used to eliminate measurement error since the uncertainties affecting the metrology system depend upon the measurement itself (e.g., the sensor bias is not constant and the measurement noise is colored). To this end, we first characterize all possible realizations of the true response that might have led to each of such measurements. This process yields a surrogate of the data for the unobservable true response taking the form of a random variable. Each of these variables, called a Random Datum Model (RDM), is manufactured according to a measurement and to the underlying structure of the uncertainty.

Solar proton events (SPEs) represent the single-most significant source of acute radiation exposure during space missions. Historically, an exponential in rigidity (particle momentum) fit has been used to express the SPE energy spectrum using GOES data up to 100 MeV. More recently, researchers have found that a Weibull fit better represents the energy spectrum up to 1000 MeV (1 GeV). In addition, the availability of SPE data extending up to several GeV has been incorporated in analyses to obtain a more complete and accurate energy spectrum representation. In this paper we discuss the major SPEs that have occurred over the past five solar cycles (~50+ years) in detail - in particular, Aug 1972 and Sept & Oct 1989 SPEs. Using a high-energy particle transport/dose code, radiation exposure estimates are presented for various thicknesses of aluminum. The effects on humans and spacecraft systems are also discussed in detail.

Reynolds number effects noted from selected test programs conducted in the Langiey 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (0.3-m TCT) are discussed. The tests, which cover a unit Reynolds number range from about 2.0 to 80.0 million per foot, summarize effects of Reynolds number on: 1) aerodynamic data from a supercritical airfoil, 2) results from several wall interference correction techniques, and 3) results obtained from advanced, cryogenic test techniques. The test techniques include 1) use of a cryogenic sidewall boundary layer removal system, 2) detailed pressure and hot wire measurements to determine test section flow quality, and 3) use of a new hot film system suitable for transition detection in a cryogenic wind tunnel. The results indicate that Reynolds number effects appear most significant when boundary layer transition effects are present and at high lift conditions when boundary layer separation exists on both the model and the tunnel sidewall.

Aerodynamic effects induced from vectoring an exhaust jet are investigated using a well established thin-layer Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes code. This multiple block code has been modified to allow for the specification of jet properties at a block face. The applicability of the resulting code for thrust vectoring applications is verified by comparing numerically and experimentally determined pressure coefficient distributions for a jet-wing afterbody configuration with a thrust-vectoring 2-D nozzle. Induced effects on the body and nearby wing from thrust vectoring are graphically illustrated.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) launched on August 12, 2005 and began aerobraking at Mars in March 2006. In order to save propellant, MRO used aerobraking to modify the initial orbit at Mars. The spacecraft passed through the atmosphere briefly on each orbit; during each pass the spacecraft was slowed by atmospheric drag, thus lowering the orbit apoapsis. The largest area on the spacecraft, most affected by aeroheating, was the solar arrays. A thermal analysis of the solar arrays was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to simulate their performance throughout the entire roughly 6-month period of aerobraking. A companion paper describes the development of this thermal model. This model has been correlated against many sets of flight data. Several maneuvers were performed during the cruise to Mars, such as thruster calibrations, which involve large abrupt changes in the spacecraft orientation relative to the sun.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) launched on August 12, 2005 and started aerobraking at Mars in March 2006. During the spacecraft's design phase, thermal models of the solar panels and instruments were developed to determine which components would be the most limiting thermally during aerobraking. Having determined the most limiting components, (from a temperature limit standpoint), thermal limits in terms of heat rate were established. Advanced thermal modeling techniques were developed utilizing Thermal Desktop and Patran Thermal. Heat transfer coefficients were calculated using a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo technique. Analysis established that the solar panels were the most limiting components during the aerobraking phase of the mission.

To meet the challenge of future deep space programs an accurate and efficient engineering code for analyzing the shielding requirements against high-energy galactic heavy radiations is needed. Such engineering design codes require establishing validation processes using laboratory ion beams and space flight measurements in realistic geometries. In consequence, a new version of the HZETRN code capable of simulating HZE ions with either laboratory or space boundary conditions is currently under development. The new code, GRNTRN, is based on a Green's function approach to the solution of Boltzmann's transport equation and like its predecessor is deterministic in nature. Code validation in the laboratory environment is addressed by showing that GRNTRN accurately predicts energy loss spectra as measured by solid-state detectors in ion beam experiments.

A set of physically based retrieval algorithms has been developed to derive from multispectral satellite imagery a variety of cloud properties that can be used to diagnose icing conditions when upper-level clouds are absent. The algorithms are being applied in near-real time to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over Florida, the Southern Great Plains, and the midwestern USA. The products are available in image and digital formats on the world-wide web. The analysis system is being upgraded to analyze GOES data over the CONUS. Validation, 24-hour processing, and operational issues are discussed.

A theoretically based algorithm to derive super-cooled liquid water (SLW) cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties is applied to operational satellite data and compared to pilot reports (PIREPS – from commercial and private aircraft) of icing and to in-situ measurements collected from a NASA icing research aircraft. The method has been shown to correctly identify the existence of SLW provided there are no higher-level ice crystal clouds (i.e. cirrus) above the SLW deck. The satellite-derived SLW cloud properties, particularly the cloud temperature, optical thickness or water path and water droplet size, show good qualitative correspondence with aircraft observations and icing intensity reports. Preliminary efforts to quantify the relationship between the satellite retrievals, PIREPS and aircraft measurements are reported here. The goal is to determine the extent to which the satellite-derived cloud parameters can be used to improve icing diagnoses and forecasts.

Special exposure limit recommendations have been designated by the National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP) for U. S. astronauts in low earth orbit (LEO) operations. These have been established from consideration of a 3% lifetime excess risk of cancer mortality for a 10-yr. active career. The most recent recommendations of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) have incorporated modified procedures for evaluating exposures with accompanying adjustments in career limits. Of special importance are the limit specifications for female exposures, which are approximately 40% less than those for males. Furthermore, radiosensitive organs unique to females require additional attention.

As shielding materials are developed for protection against the hazards of galactic cosmic rays, it is desirable to develop a protocol for rapid assessment of shielding properties. Solid state energy loss detectors are often used to estimate the charge and energy of particles in ion beam experiments. The direct measurement is energy deposited in the detector. As a means of separating the charge components in typical shield transmission studies with observation, a stack of many such detectors is used. With high-energy beams and thin targets, surviving primaries and fragments emerging from the target have nearly-equal velocities and deposited energy scales with the square of the charge, simplifying the data analysis. The development of a transport model for the shield and detector arrangement and evaluation of prediction of the energy loss spectrum for direct comparison with the experimentally derived data allows a rapid assessment of the shield transmission characteristics.

The long term exposure of astronauts on the developing International Space Station (ISS) requires an accurate knowledge of the internal exposure environment for human risk assessment and other onboard processes. The natural environment is moderated by the solar wind, which varies over the solar cycle. The HZETRN high charge and energy transport code developed at NASA Langley Research Center can be used to evaluate the neutron environment on ISS. A time dependent model for the ambient environment in low earth orbit is used. This model includes GCR radiation moderated by the Earth’s magnetic field, trapped protons, and a recently completed model of the albedo neutron environment formed through the interaction of galactic cosmic rays with the Earth’s atmosphere. Using this code, the neutron environments for space shuttle missions were calculated and comparisons were made to measurements by the Johnson Space Center with onboard detectors.

The projected radiation levels within the International Space Station (ISS) have been criticized by the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel in their report to the NASA Administrator. Methods for optimal reconfiguration and augmentation of the ISS shielding are now being developed. The initial steps are to develop reconfigurable and realistic radiation shield models of the ISS modules, develop computational procedures for the highly anisotropic radiation environment, and implement parametric and organizational optimization procedures. The targets of the redesign process are the crew quarters where the astronauts sleep and determining the effects of ISS shadow shielding of an astronaut in a spacesuit. The ISS model as developed will be reconfigurable to follow the ISS. Swapping internal equipment rack assemblies via location mapping tables will be one option for shield optimization.

An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effectiveness of Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) flight displays as a means of eliminating Low Visibility Loss of Control (LVLOC) and Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) accidents by low time general aviation (GA) pilots. A series of basic maneuvers were performed by 18 subject pilots during transition from Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) to Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC), with continued flight into IMC, employing a fixed-based flight simulator. A total of three display concepts were employed for this evaluation. One display concept, referred to as the Attitude Indicator (AI) replicated instrumentation common in today's General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The second display concept, referred to as the Electronic Attitude Indicator (EAI), featured an enlarged attitude indicator that was more representative of a “glass display” that also included advanced flight symbology, such as a velocity vector.

The effect on general aviation (GA) pilots' abilities to fly a small airplane while using a prototype data-linked weather information system (WIS) display, located in various cockpit positions, was investigated in comparison to the effect on their flying of acquiring weather information through conventional means. Ten GA pilots performed en route flying tasks of varying difficulty while concurrently performing weather information acquisition tasks. Pilots' subjective workload ratings, weather information acquisition times and accuracy levels, and preliminary flight path parameter deviation data indicate that using a WIS display results in smaller flight path parameter deviations, lower workload, and faster and slightly more accurate information retrieval than when weather information is obtained via the radio.

All but a small fraction of human space radiation exposure has been in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) where significant protection from extraterrestrial ionizing radiation is provided as a result of its deflection in the Earth's magnetic field. The placement of a manned outpost at the L1 Lagrange Point could mark the first long-term venture into a “deep space” radiation environment, giving rise to the associated problems of long-term space exposure. One of the first issues to address is providing protection within an L1 station from a large solar particle event. A safe haven area could be used over the duration of the event or one may consider the sleep stations where it is already necessary to have added shielding. The surrounding bodies of other closely packed crewmembers in such a shelter are expected to provide a significant fraction of a crewmember's total shielding.

The General Aviation Element of the Aviation Safety Program's Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) Project is developing technology to eliminate low visibility induced General Aviation (GA) accidents. SVS displays present computer generated 3-dimensional imagery of the surrounding terrain on the Primary Flight Display (PFD) to greatly enhance pilot's situation awareness (SA), reducing or eliminating Controlled Flight into Terrain, as well as Low-Visibility Loss of Control accidents. SVS-conducted research is facilitating development of display concepts that provide the pilot with an unobstructed view of the outside terrain, regardless of weather conditions and time of day. A critical component of SVS displays is the appropriate presentation of terrain to the pilot. An experimental study is being conducted at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to explore and quantify the relationship between the realism of the terrain presentation and resulting enhancements of pilot SA and performance.

This paper presents the conceptual thermal design and analysis results for the Spectroscopy of the Atmosphere using Far-Infrared Emission (SAFIRE) instrument. SAFIRE has been proposed for Mission to Planet Earth to study ozone chemistry in the middle atmosphere using remote sensing of the atmosphere in the far-infrared (21-87 microns) and mid- infrared (9-16 microns) spectra. SAFIRE requires that far-IR detectors be cooled to 3-4 K and mid-IR detectors to 80 K for the expected mission lifetime of five years. A superfluid helium dewar and Stirling-cycle cryocoolers provide the cryogenic temperatures required by the infrared detectors. The proposed instrument thermal design uses passive thermal control techniques to reject 465 watts of waste heat from the instrument.

Cloud properties retrieved from satellite data are used to diagnose aircraft icing threat in single layer and multilayered ice-over-liquid clouds. The algorithms are being applied in real time to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over the CONUS with multilayer data available over the eastern CONUS. METEOSAT data are also used to retrieve icing conditions over western Europe. The icing algorithm's methodology and validation are discussed along with future enhancements and plans. The icing risk product is available in image and digital formats on NASA Langley ‘s Cloud and Radiation Products web site, http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov.

An experimental research effort was begun to develop a database of airplane aerodynamic characteristics with simulated ice accretion over a large range of incidence and sideslip angles. Wind-tunnel testing was performed at the NASA Langley 12-ft Low-Speed Wind Tunnel using a 3.5% scale model of the NASA Langley Generic Transport Model. Aerodynamic data were acquired from a six-component force and moment balance in static-model sweeps from α = -5 to 85 deg. and β = -45 to 45 deg. at a Reynolds number of 0.24x10⁶ and Mach number of 0.06. The 3.5% scale GTM was tested in both the clean configuration and with full-span artificial ice shapes attached to the leading edges of the wing, horizontal and vertical tail. Aerodynamic results for the clean airplane configuration compared favorably with similar experiments carried out on a 5.5% scale GTM.