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The statistical analysis of vehicle crash accident data is generally problematic. Data from commonly used sources is almost never without error and complete. Consequently, many analyses are contaminated with modeling and system identification errors. In some cases the effect of influential factors such as crash severity (the most significant component being speed) driver behavior prior to the crash, etc. on vehicle and occupant outcome is not adequately addressed. The speed that the vehicle is traveling at the initiation of a crash is a significant contributor to occupant risk. Not incorporating it may make an accident analysis irrelevant; however, despite its importance this information is not included in many of the commonly used crash data bases, such as the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Missing speed information can result in potential errors propagating throughout the analysis, unless a method is developed to account for the missing information.

This paper introduces a methodology to calculate confidence bounds for a normal and Weibull distribution using Monte Carlo pivotal statistics. As an example, a ready-to-use lookup table to calculate one-sided lower confidence bounds is established and demonstrated for normal and Weibull distributions. The concept of one-sided lower tolerance limits for a normal distribution was first introduced by G. J. Lieberman in 1958 (later modified by Link in 1985 and Wei in 2012), and has been widely used in the automotive industry because of the easy-to-use lookup tables. Monte Carlo simulation methods presented here are more accurate as they eliminate assumptions and approximations inherent in existing approaches by using random experiments. This developed methodology can be used to generate confidence bounds for any parametric distribution. The ready-to-use table for the one-sided lower tolerance limits for a Weibull distribution is presented.

In this paper, the development of random vibration testing schedules for durability design verification of engine mounted products is presented, based on the equivalent fatigue damage concept and the 95th-percentile customer engine usage data for 150,000 miles. Development of the 95th-percentile customer usage profile is first discussed. Following that, the field engine excitation and engine duty cycle definition is introduced. By using a simplified transfer function of a single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system subjected to a base excitation, the response acceleration and stress PSDs are related to the input excitation in PSD, which is the equivalent fatigue damage concept. Also, the narrow-band fatigue damage spectrum (FDS) is calculated in terms of the input excitation PSD based on the Miner linear damage rule, the Rayleigh statistical distribution for stress amplitude, a material's S-N curve, and the Miles approximate solution.

Reliable testing of a mechanical system requires the procedures used for the evaluation to be repeatable and reproducible. However, it is never possible to exactly repeat or reproduce the tests that are used for evaluation. To overcome this limitation, a statistical evaluation procedure can generally be used. However, most of the statistical procedures use scalar values as input without the ability to handle vectors or time-histories. To overcome these limitations, two numerical/statistical methods for determining if the impact time-history response of a mechanical system is repeatable or reproducible are evaluated and elaborated upon. Such a system could be a vehicle, a biological human surrogate, an Anthropometric Test Device (ATD or dummy), etc. The responses could be sets of time-histories of accelerations, forces, moments, etc., of a component or of the system. The example system evaluated is the BioRID II rear impact dummy.

In reliability design, often, there is scarce data for constructing probabilistic models. Probabilistic models whose parameters vary in known intervals could be more suitable than Bayesian models because the former models do not require making assumptions that are not supported by the available evidence. If we use models whose parameters vary in intervals we need to calculate upper and lower bounds of the failure probability (or reliability) of a system in order to make design decisions. Monte Carlo simulation can be used for this purpose, but it is too expensive for all but very simple systems. This paper proposes an efficient Monte-Carlo simulation approach for estimation of upper and lower probabilities. This approach is based on two ideas: a) use an efficient approach for reliability reanalysis of a system, which is introduced in this paper, and b) approximate the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum failure probabilities using extreme value statistics.

In reliability design, often, there is scarce data for constructing probabilistic models. It is particularly challenging to model uncertainty in variables when the type of their probability distribution is unknown. Moreover, it is expensive to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the reliability of a system involving such variables. A method for modeling uncertainty by using Polynomial Chaos Expansion is presented. The method requires specifying bounds for statistical summaries such as the first four moments and credible intervals. A constrained optimization problem, in which decision variables are the coefficients of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion approximation, is formulated and solved in order to estimate the minimum and maximum values of a system’s reliability. This problem is solved efficiently by employing a probabilistic re-analysis approach to approximate the system reliability as a function of the moments of the random variables.

This paper will define the process for correlating fatigue based customer duty cycle with laboratory bench test data. The process includes the development of the Median and Design Load-Life curve equations. The Median Load-Life curve is a best fit linear regression; whereas, the Design Load-Life curve incorporates component specific reliability and confidence targets. To account for the statistical distribution of fatigue life, due to sample size, the one-side lower-bound tolerance limit method ( Lieberman, 1958 ) will be utilized. This paper will include a correlation between the predicted design fatigue life and the actual product life.