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Journal Article

A Copula-Based Approach for Model Bias Characterization

2014-04-01
2014-01-0735
Available methodologies for model bias identification are mainly regression-based approaches, such as Gaussian process, Bayesian inference-based models and so on. Accuracy and efficiency of these methodologies may degrade for characterizing the model bias when more system inputs are considered in the prediction model due to the curse of dimensionality for regression-based approaches. This paper proposes a copula-based approach for model bias identification without suffering the curse of dimensionality. The main idea is to build general statistical relationships between the model bias and the model prediction including all system inputs using copulas so that possible model bias distributions can be effectively identified at any new design configurations of the system. Two engineering case studies whose dimensionalities range from medium to high will be employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the copula-based approach.
Journal Article

Analyzing and Predicting Heterogeneous Customer Preferences in China's Auto Market Using Choice Modeling and Network Analysis

2015-04-14
2015-01-0468
As the world's largest auto producer and consumer, China is both the most promising and complex market given the country's rapid economic growth, huge population, and many regional and segment preference differences. This research is aimed at developing data-driven demand models for customer preference analysis and prediction under a competitive market environment. Regional analysis is first used to understand the impact of geographical factors on customer preference. After a comprehensive data exploration, a customer-level mixed logit model is built to shed light on fast-growing vehicle segments in the Chinese auto market. By combining the data of vehicle purchase, consideration, and past choice, cross-shopping behaviors and brand influence are explicitly modeled in addition to the impact of customer demographics, usage behaviors, and attributes of vehicles.
Journal Article

Optimization Strategies to Explore Multiple Optimal Solutions and Its Application to Restraint System Design

2012-04-16
2012-01-0578
Design optimization techniques are widely used to drive designs toward a global or a near global optimal solution. However, the achieved optimal solution often appears to be the only choice that an engineer/designer can select as the final design. This is caused by either problem topology or by the nature of optimization algorithms to converge quickly in local/global optimal or both. Problem topology can be unimodal or multimodal with many local and/or global optimal solutions. For multimodal problems, most global algorithms tend to exploit the global optimal solution quickly but at the same time leaving the engineer with only one choice of design. The paper explores the application of genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA), and mixed integer problem sequential quadratic programming (MIPSQP) to find multiple local and global solutions using single objective optimization formulation.
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