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This article presents strategies for evaluating the mean, variance, and failure probability of a response variable given measurements subject to both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. We focus on a case in which standard sensor calibration techniques cannot be used to eliminate measurement error since the uncertainties affecting the metrology system depend upon the measurement itself (e.g., the sensor bias is not constant and the measurement noise is colored). To this end, we first characterize all possible realizations of the true response that might have led to each of such measurements. This process yields a surrogate of the data for the unobservable true response taking the form of a random variable. Each of these variables, called a Random Datum Model (RDM), is manufactured according to a measurement and to the underlying structure of the uncertainty.

Solar proton events (SPEs) represent the single-most significant source of acute radiation exposure during space missions. Historically, an exponential in rigidity (particle momentum) fit has been used to express the SPE energy spectrum using GOES data up to 100 MeV. More recently, researchers have found that a Weibull fit better represents the energy spectrum up to 1000 MeV (1 GeV). In addition, the availability of SPE data extending up to several GeV has been incorporated in analyses to obtain a more complete and accurate energy spectrum representation. In this paper we discuss the major SPEs that have occurred over the past five solar cycles (~50+ years) in detail - in particular, Aug 1972 and Sept & Oct 1989 SPEs. Using a high-energy particle transport/dose code, radiation exposure estimates are presented for various thicknesses of aluminum. The effects on humans and spacecraft systems are also discussed in detail.

Aerodynamic effects induced from vectoring an exhaust jet are investigated using a well established thin-layer Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes code. This multiple block code has been modified to allow for the specification of jet properties at a block face. The applicability of the resulting code for thrust vectoring applications is verified by comparing numerically and experimentally determined pressure coefficient distributions for a jet-wing afterbody configuration with a thrust-vectoring 2-D nozzle. Induced effects on the body and nearby wing from thrust vectoring are graphically illustrated.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) launched on August 12, 2005 and began aerobraking at Mars in March 2006. In order to save propellant, MRO used aerobraking to modify the initial orbit at Mars. The spacecraft passed through the atmosphere briefly on each orbit; during each pass the spacecraft was slowed by atmospheric drag, thus lowering the orbit apoapsis. The largest area on the spacecraft, most affected by aeroheating, was the solar arrays. A thermal analysis of the solar arrays was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center to simulate their performance throughout the entire roughly 6-month period of aerobraking. A companion paper describes the development of this thermal model. This model has been correlated against many sets of flight data. Several maneuvers were performed during the cruise to Mars, such as thruster calibrations, which involve large abrupt changes in the spacecraft orientation relative to the sun.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) launched on August 12, 2005 and started aerobraking at Mars in March 2006. During the spacecraft's design phase, thermal models of the solar panels and instruments were developed to determine which components would be the most limiting thermally during aerobraking. Having determined the most limiting components, (from a temperature limit standpoint), thermal limits in terms of heat rate were established. Advanced thermal modeling techniques were developed utilizing Thermal Desktop and Patran Thermal. Heat transfer coefficients were calculated using a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo technique. Analysis established that the solar panels were the most limiting components during the aerobraking phase of the mission.

A set of physically based retrieval algorithms has been developed to derive from multispectral satellite imagery a variety of cloud properties that can be used to diagnose icing conditions when upper-level clouds are absent. The algorithms are being applied in near-real time to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over Florida, the Southern Great Plains, and the midwestern USA. The products are available in image and digital formats on the world-wide web. The analysis system is being upgraded to analyze GOES data over the CONUS. Validation, 24-hour processing, and operational issues are discussed.

Natural fliers demonstrate a diverse array of flight capabilities, many of which are poorly understood. NASA has established a research project to explore and exploit flight technologies inspired by biological systems. One part of this project focuses on dynamic modeling and control of micro aerial vehicles that incorporate flexible wing structures inspired by natural fliers such as insects, hummingbirds and bats. With a vast number of potential civil and military applications, micro aerial vehicles represent an emerging sector of the aerospace market. This paper describes an ongoing research activity in which mechanization and control concepts for biologically inspired micro aerial vehicles are being explored. Research activities focusing on a flexible fixed-wing micro aerial vehicle design and a flapping-based micro aerial vehicle concept are presented.

The long term exposure of astronauts on the developing International Space Station (ISS) requires an accurate knowledge of the internal exposure environment for human risk assessment and other onboard processes. The natural environment is moderated by the solar wind, which varies over the solar cycle. The HZETRN high charge and energy transport code developed at NASA Langley Research Center can be used to evaluate the neutron environment on ISS. A time dependent model for the ambient environment in low earth orbit is used. This model includes GCR radiation moderated by the Earth’s magnetic field, trapped protons, and a recently completed model of the albedo neutron environment formed through the interaction of galactic cosmic rays with the Earth’s atmosphere. Using this code, the neutron environments for space shuttle missions were calculated and comparisons were made to measurements by the Johnson Space Center with onboard detectors.

A detailed spacesuit computational model is being developed at the Langley Research Center for exposure evaluation studies. The details of the construction of the spacesuit are critical to an estimate of exposures and for assessing the health risk to the astronaut during extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Fine detail of the basic fabric structure, helmet, and backpack is required to assure a valid evaluation. The exposure fields within the Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) and Female (CAF) are evaluated at 148 and 156 points, respectively, to determine the dose fluctuations within critical organs. Exposure evaluations for ambient environments will be given and potential implications for geomagnetic storm conditions discussed.

The projected radiation levels within the International Space Station (ISS) have been criticized by the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel in their report to the NASA Administrator. Methods for optimal reconfiguration and augmentation of the ISS shielding are now being developed. The initial steps are to develop reconfigurable and realistic radiation shield models of the ISS modules, develop computational procedures for the highly anisotropic radiation environment, and implement parametric and organizational optimization procedures. The targets of the redesign process are the crew quarters where the astronauts sleep and determining the effects of ISS shadow shielding of an astronaut in a spacesuit. The ISS model as developed will be reconfigurable to follow the ISS. Swapping internal equipment rack assemblies via location mapping tables will be one option for shield optimization.

All but a small fraction of human space radiation exposure has been in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) where significant protection from extraterrestrial ionizing radiation is provided as a result of its deflection in the Earth's magnetic field. The placement of a manned outpost at the L1 Lagrange Point could mark the first long-term venture into a “deep space” radiation environment, giving rise to the associated problems of long-term space exposure. One of the first issues to address is providing protection within an L1 station from a large solar particle event. A safe haven area could be used over the duration of the event or one may consider the sleep stations where it is already necessary to have added shielding. The surrounding bodies of other closely packed crewmembers in such a shelter are expected to provide a significant fraction of a crewmember's total shielding.

Preliminary braking, steering, and tread wear performance results from testing of 26 x 6.6 and 40 x 14 radial-belted and bias-ply aircraft tires at NASA Langley's Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility (ALDF) are reviewed. These tire tests are part of a larger, ongoing joint NASA/FAA/Industry Surface Traction And Radial Tire (START) Program involving these two different tire sizes as well as an H46 x 18-20 tire size which has not yet been evaluated. Both dry and wet surface conditions were evaluated on two different test surfaces - nongrooved Portland cement concrete and specially constructed, hexagonal-shaped concrete paver blocks. Use of paver blocks at airport facilities has been limited to ramp and taxiway areas and the industry needs a tire friction evaluation of this paving material prior to additional airport pavement installations.

Cloud properties retrieved from satellite data are used to diagnose aircraft icing threat in single layer and multilayered ice-over-liquid clouds. The algorithms are being applied in real time to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data over the CONUS with multilayer data available over the eastern CONUS. METEOSAT data are also used to retrieve icing conditions over western Europe. The icing algorithm's methodology and validation are discussed along with future enhancements and plans. The icing risk product is available in image and digital formats on NASA Langley ‘s Cloud and Radiation Products web site, http://www-angler.larc.nasa.gov.

An experimental research effort was begun to develop a database of airplane aerodynamic characteristics with simulated ice accretion over a large range of incidence and sideslip angles. Wind-tunnel testing was performed at the NASA Langley 12-ft Low-Speed Wind Tunnel using a 3.5% scale model of the NASA Langley Generic Transport Model. Aerodynamic data were acquired from a six-component force and moment balance in static-model sweeps from α = -5 to 85 deg. and β = -45 to 45 deg. at a Reynolds number of 0.24x10⁶ and Mach number of 0.06. The 3.5% scale GTM was tested in both the clean configuration and with full-span artificial ice shapes attached to the leading edges of the wing, horizontal and vertical tail. Aerodynamic results for the clean airplane configuration compared favorably with similar experiments carried out on a 5.5% scale GTM.

On January 14, 2004 President George W Bush outlined a new vision for NASA that has humans venturing back to the moon by 2020. With this ambitious goal, new tools and models have been developed to help define and predict the amount of space radiation astronauts will be exposed to during transit and habitation on the moon. A representative scenario is used that includes a trajectory from LEO to a Lunar Base, and simplified CAD models for the transit and habitat structures. For this study galactic cosmic rays, solar proton events, and trapped electron and proton environments are simulated using new dynamic environment models to generate energetic electron, and light and heavy ion fluences. Detailed calculations are presented to assess the human exposure for transit segments and surface stays.

Research committed by the Langley Research Center through 1995 resulting in the HZETRN code provides the current basis for shield design methods according to NASA STD-3000 (2005). With this new prominence, the database, basic numerical procedures, and algorithms are being re-examined with new methods of verification and validation being implemented to capture a well defined algorithm for engineering design processes to be used in this early development phase of the Bush initiative. This process provides the methodology to transform the 1995 HZETRN research code into the 2005 HZETRN engineering code to be available for these early design processes. In this paper, we will review the basic derivations including new corrections to the codes to insure improved numerical stability and provide benchmarks for code verification.

A new Green’s function code (GRNTRN) capable of simulating HZE ions with either laboratory or space boundary conditions is currently under development. The computational model consists of combinations of physical perturbation expansions based on the scales of atomic interaction, multiple scattering, and nuclear reactive processes with use of the Neumann-asymptotic expansions with non-perturbative corrections. The code contains energy loss due to straggling, nuclear attenuation, nuclear fragmentation with energy dispersion and downshifts. Recent publications have focused on code validation in the laboratory environment and have shown that the code predicts energy loss spectra accurately as measured by solid-state detectors in ion beam experiments. In this paper emphasis is placed on code validation with space boundary conditions.

Recently, a new Green’s function code (GRNTRN) for simulation of HZE ion beams in the laboratory setting has been developed. Once fully developed and experimentally verified, GRNTRN will be a great asset in assessing radiation exposures in both the laboratory and space settings. The computational model consists of combinations of physical perturbation expansions based on the scales of atomic interaction, multiple elastic scattering, and nuclear reactive processes with use of Neumann-series expansions with non-perturbative corrections. The code contains energy loss with straggling, nuclear attenuation, nuclear fragmentation with energy dispersion and down shifts. Previous reports show that the new code accurately models the transport of ion beams through a single slab of material. Current research efforts are focused on enabling the code to handle multiple layers of material and the present paper reports on progress made towards that end.

A new method is developed for calculating the low energy neutron flux in a space environment which is protected from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) by shielding materials. Our calculations are compared with low energy neutron flux flight data recorded on four different STS low earth orbit missions. We also compare our neutron flux calculations with the low energy neutron flux data recorded by MIR. The low energy neutron flux calculations can be described as a deterministic method for solving the Boltzmann equation for the light ion flux associated with a given environment. Existing Monte Carlo neutron flux simulations associated with the MIR and ISS space stations are also compared with our deterministic method for calculating neutron flux.

An advanced analytical methodology has been developed for predicting the residual strength of stiffened thin-sheet riveted shell structures such as those used for the fuselage of a commercial transport aircraft. The crack-tip opening angle elastic-plastic fracture criterion has been coupled to a geometric and material nonlinear finite element shell code for analyzing complex structural behavior. An automated adaptive mesh refinement capability together with global-local analysis methods have been developed to predict the behavior of fuselage structure with long cracks. This methodology is currently being experimentally verified. Advanced nondestructive inspection technology has been developed that will provide airline operators with the capability to conduct reliable and economical broad-area inspections of aircraft structures.