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Journal Article

Reliability and Cost Trade-Off Analysis of a Microgrid

2018-04-03
2018-01-0619
Optimizing the trade-off between reliability and cost of operating a microgrid, including vehicles as both loads and sources, can be a challenge. Optimal energy management is crucial to develop strategies to improve the efficiency and reliability of microgrids, as well as new communication networks to support optimal and reliable operation. Prior approaches modeled the grid using MATLAB, but did not include the detailed physics of loads and sources, and therefore missed the transient effects that are present in real-time operation of a microgrid. This article discusses the implementation of a physics-based detailed microgrid model including a diesel generator, wind turbine, photovoltaic array, and utility. All elements are modeled as sources in Simulink. Various loads are also implemented including an asynchronous motor. We show how a central control algorithm optimizes the microgrid by trying to maximize reliability while reducing operational cost.
Technical Paper

Reconciling Simultaneous Evolution of Ground Vehicle Capabilities and Operator Preferences

2020-04-14
2020-01-0172
An objective evaluation of ground vehicle performance is a challenging task. This is further exacerbated by the increasing level of autonomy, dynamically changing the roles and capabilities of these vehicles. In the context of decision making involving these vehicles, as the capabilities of the vehicles improve, there is a concurrent change in the preferences of the decision makers operating the vehicles that must be accounted for. Decision based methods are a natural choice when multiple conflicting attributes are present, however, most of the literature focuses on static preferences. In this paper, we provide a sequential Bayesian framework to accommodate time varying preferences. The utility function is considered a stochastic function with the shape parameters themselves being random variables. In the proposed approach, initially the shape parameters model either uncertain preferences or variation in the preferences because of the presence of multiple decision makers.
Technical Paper

Reliability and Resiliency Definitions for Smart Microgrids Based on Utility Theory

2017-03-28
2017-01-0205
Reliability and resiliency (R&R) definitions differ depending on the system under consideration. Generally, each engineering sector defines relevant R&R metrics pertinent to their system. While this can impede cross-disciplinary engineering projects as well as research, it is a necessary strategy to capture all the relevant system characteristics. This paper highlights the difficulties associated with defining performance of such systems while using smart microgrids as an example. Further, it develops metrics and definitions that are useful in assessing their performance, based on utility theory. A microgrid must not only anticipate load conditions but also tolerate partial failures and remain optimally operating. Many of these failures happen infrequently but unexpectedly and therefore are hard to plan for. We discuss real life failure scenarios and show how the proposed definitions and metrics are beneficial.
Journal Article

Decision-Making for Autonomous Mobility Using Remotely Sensed Terrain Parameters in Off-Road Environments

2021-04-06
2021-01-0233
Off-road vehicle operation requires constant decision-making under great uncertainty. Such decisions are multi-faceted and range from acquisition decisions to operational decisions. A major input to these decisions is terrain information in the form of soil properties. This information needs to be propagated to path planning algorithms that augment them with other inputs such as visual terrain assessment and other sensors. In this sequence of steps, many resources are needed, and it is not often clear how best to utilize them. We present an integrated approach where a mission’s overall performance is measured using a multiattribute utility function. This framework allows us to evaluate the value of acquiring terrain information and then its use in path planning. The computational effort of optimizing the vehicle path is also considered and optimized. We present our approach using the data acquired from the Keweenaw Research Center terrains and present some results.
Journal Article

A Decision Based Mobility Model for Semi and Fully Autonomous Vehicles

2020-04-14
2020-01-0747
With the emergence of intelligent ground vehicles, an objective evaluation of vehicle mobility has become an even more challenging task. Vehicle mobility refers to the ability of a ground vehicle to traverse from one point to another, preferably in an optimal way. Numerous techniques exist for evaluating the mobility of vehicles on paved roads, both quantitatively and qualitatively, however, capabilities to evaluate their off-road performance remains limited. Whereas a vehicle’s off-road mobility may be significantly enhanced with intelligence, it also introduces many new variables into the decision making process that must be considered. In this paper, we present a decision analytic framework to accomplish this task. In our approach, a vehicle’s mobility is modeled using an operator’s preferences over multiple mobility attributes of concern. We also provide a method to analyze various operating scenarios including the ability to mitigate uncertainty in the vehicles inputs.
Journal Article

Balancing Lifecycle Sustainment Cost with Value of Information during Design Phase

2020-04-14
2020-01-0176
The complete lifecycle of complex systems, such as ground vehicles, consists of multiple phases including design, manufacturing, operation and sustainment (O&S) and finally disposal. For many systems, the majority of the lifecycle costs are incurred during the operation and sustainment phase, specifically in the form of uncertain maintenance costs. Testing and analysis during the design phase, including reliability and supportability analysis, can have a major influence on costs during the O&S phase. However, the cost of the analysis itself must be reconciled with the expected benefits of the reduction in uncertainty. In this paper, we quantify the value of performing the tests and analyses in the design phase by treating it as imperfect information obtained to better estimate uncertain maintenance costs.
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