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Understanding reliability is critical in design, maintenance and durability analysis of engineering systems. A reliability simulation methodology is presented in this paper for vehicle fleets using limited data. The method can be used to estimate the reliability of non-repairable as well as repairable systems. It can optimally allocate, based on a target system reliability, individual component reliabilities using a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The algorithm establishes a Pareto front that can be used for optimal tradeoff between reliability and the associated cost. The method uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the system failure rate and reliability as a function of time. The probability density functions (PDF) of the time between failures for all components of the system are estimated using either limited data or a user-supplied MTBF (mean time between failures) and its coefficient of variation.

Warranty forecasting of repairable systems is very important for manufacturers of mass produced systems. It is desired to predict the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) after a censoring time using collected failure data before the censoring time. Moreover, systems may be produced with a defective component resulting in extensive warranty costs even after the defective component is detected and replaced with a new design. In this paper, we present a forecasting method to predict the ENF of a repairable system using observed data which is used to calibrate a Generalized Renewal Processes (GRP) model. Manufacturing of products may exhibit different production patterns with different failure statistics through time. For example, vehicles produced in different months may have different failure intensities because of supply chain differences or different skills of production workers, for example.

The goal of this work is to develop an efficient numerical modeling method for the vibration of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) battery packs to support probabilistic forced response simulations and fatigue life predictions. There are two important sources of variations in HEV battery packs that affect their structural dynamic response. One source is the uncertain level of pre-stress due to bolts or welds used for joining cells within a pack. The other source is small structural variations among the cells of a battery pack. The structural dynamics of HEV battery packs are known to feature very high modal density in many frequency bands. That is because packs are composed of nominally identical cells. The high modal density combined with small, random structural variations among the cells can lead to drastic variations in the dynamic response compared with those of the ideal nominal system.

As powertrain hybridization technologies are becoming popular, their application for heavy-duty military vehicles is drawing attention. An intelligent design and operation of the energy management system (EMS) is important to ensure that hybrid military vehicles can operate efficiently, simultaneously maximize fuel economy and minimize monetary cost, while successfully completing mission tasks. Furthermore, an integrated EMS framework is vital to ensure a functional vehicle power system (VPS) to survive through critical missions in a highly stochastic environment, when needed. This calls for situational awareness and dynamic system reconfiguration capabilities on-board of the military vehicle. This paper presents a new energy management and control (EMC) framework based on holistic situational awareness (SA) and dynamic reconfiguration of the VPS.

Modeling and simulation of ground vehicles can be a computationally expensive problem due to the complexity of high-fidelity vehicle models. Often to determine mobility metrics, multiple stochastic simulations need to be evaluated. Surrogate models, or models of models, offer a means to reduce the computational cost of these simulation efforts. Since various types of surrogate models are available to the user, choosing the best surrogate model for a simulation is mostly the challenging process. In this paper, the process of selecting surrogate models and its uses based on model metafeatures is presented. The approach formulates this decision as a trade-off among three main drivers, required dataset size (how much information is necessary to compute the surrogate model), surrogate model accuracy (how accurate the surrogate model must be) and total computational time (how much time is required for the surrogate modeling process).

The application of virtual engineering methods can streamline the product design process through improved collaboration opportunities among the technical staff and facilitate additive manufacturing processes. A product digital twin can be created using the available computer-aided design and analytical mathematical models to numerically explore the current and future system performance based on operating cycles. The strategic decision to implement a digital twin is of interest to companies, whether the required financial and workforce resources will be worthwhile. In this paper, two metrics are introduced to assist management teams in evaluating the technology potential. The usefulness and time savings metrics will be presented with accompanying definitions. A case study highlights the usefulness metric for the “Deep Orange” prototype vehicle, an innovative off-road hybrid vehicle designed and fabricated at Clemson University.

Drive cycles are a core piece of vehicle development testing methodology. The control and calibration of the vehicle is often tuned over drive cycles as they are the best representation of the real-world driving the vehicle will see during deployment. To obtain general performance numerous drive cycles must be generated to ensure final control and calibration avoids overfitting to the specifics of a single drive cycle. When real-world driving cycles are difficult to acquire methods can be used to create statistically similar synthetic drive cycles to avoid the overfitting problem. This subject has been well addressed within the passenger vehicle domain but must be expanded upon for utilization with tracked off-road vehicles. Development of hybrid tracked vehicles has increased this need further. This study shows that turning dynamics have significant influence on the vehicle power demand and on the power demand on each individual track.

The integration of sensors, actuators, and real-time control in transportation systems enables intelligent system operation to minimize energy consumption and maximize occupant safety and vehicle reliability. The operating cycle of military ground vehicles can be on- and off-road in harsh weather and adversarial environments, which demands continuous subsystem functionality to fulfill missions. Onboard diagnostic systems can alert the operator of a degraded operation once established fault thresholds are exceeded. An opportunity exists to estimate vehicle maintenance needs using model-based predicted trends and eventually compiled information from fleet operating databases. A digital twin, created to virtually describe the dynamic behavior of a physical system using computer-mathematical models, can estimate the system behavior based on current and future operating scenarios while accounting for past effects.

The safety and reliability of ground vehicles is a motivating factor for periodic maintenance which includes fluids, lubrication, cleaning, repairs, and general observation of key subsystems. The scheduling of maintenance activities can occur at different rates such as daily, weekly, or perhaps operating time based on collected historical data and general guidelines. The availability of a digital twin (DT), which offers a virtual representation of the vehicle behavior, enables virtual system simulations for different operating cycles to explore the dynamic behavior. When field operating fleet data can be integrated with the digital twin estimates, then this supplemental information can be combined with the existing maintenance plan to provide a more comprehensive approach. In this paper, a digital twin with a statistical based predictive maintenance strategy is investigated for a wheeled military ground vehicle.

Digital twin technology has become impactful in Industry 4.0 as it enables engineers to design, simulate, and analyze complex systems and products. As a result of the synergy between physical and virtual realms, innovation in the “real twin” or actual product is more effectively fostered. The availability of verified computer models that describe the target system is important for realistic simulations that provide operating behaviors that can be leveraged for future design studies or predictive maintenance algorithms. In this paper, a digital twin is created for an offroad tracked vehicle that can operate in either autonomous or remote-control modes. Mathematical models are presented and implemented to describe the twin track and vehicle chassis governing dynamics. These components are interfaced through the nonlinear suspension elements and distributed bogies.

Design of internal combustion (IC) engine pistons is dependent on accurate prediction of the temperature field in the component. Experimental temperature measurements can be taken but are costly and typically limited to a few select locations. High-fidelity computer simulations can be used to predict the temperature at any number of locations within the model, but the models must be calibrated for the predictions to be accurate. The largest barrier to calibration of piston thermal models is estimating the backside boundary conditions, as there is not much literature available for these boundary conditions. Bayesian model calibration is a common choice for model calibration in literature, but little research is available applying this method to piston thermal models. Neural networks have been shown in literature to be effective for calibration of piston thermal models.