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Technology change can yield some combination of changes in fuel economy, performance, size, or other characteristics that influence the fleetwide fuel consumption. Thus, engineering progress can be manifest in multiple ways, reflected in the view that technical efficiency may improve even when fuel economy does not. This analysis quantifies underlying technical efficiency gains that reflect trade-offs between fuel economy and other attributes of light vehicles. Prior analyses yielded estimates of technical efficiency trends ranging from 1% per year to nearly 4% per year. Few analyses revealed consistent trends; most identify periods when progress was made at different rates. Using fleetwide (aggregate) data for U.S. light vehicles, exploratory data analysis and correlation techniques were applied to examine trends in energy-related variables. Individual trends for all variables are uneven over time.

This paper assesses the potential for car and light truck fuel economy improvements by 2010-15. We examine a range of refinements to body systems and powertrain, reflecting current best practice as well as emerging technologies such as advanced engine and transmission, lightweight materials, integrated starter-generators, and hybrid drive. Engine options are restricted to those already known to meet upcoming California emissions standards. Our approach is to apply a state-of-art vehicle system simulation model to assess vehicle fuel economy gains and performance levels. We select a set of baseline vehicles representing five major classes - Small and Standard Cars, Pickup Trucks, SUVs and Minivans - and analyze design changes likely to be commercially viable within the coming decade. Results vary by vehicle type.

This paper assesses the technical potential, costs and benefits of improving the fuel economy of light-duty trucks over the next five to ten years in the United States using conventional technologies. We offer an in-depth analysis of several technology packages based on a detailed vehicle system modeling approach. Results are provided for fuel economy, cost, oil savings and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. We examine a range of refinements to body, powertrain and electrical systems, reflecting current best practice and emerging technologies such as lightweight materials, high-efficiency IC engines, integrated starter-generator, 42 volt electrical system and advanced transmission. In this paper, multiple technological pathways are identified to significantly improve fleet average light-duty-truck fuel economy to 27.0 MPG or higher with net savings to consumers.

The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, we quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time.