Journal Article
Sensitivity of Monte Carlo Modeling in Crash Reconstruction
2010-04-12
2010-01-0071
The Monte Carlo method is a well-known technique for propagating uncertainty in complex systems and has been applied to traffic crash reconstruction analysis. The Monte Carlo method is a probabilistic technique that randomly samples input distributions and then combines these samples according to a deterministic model. However, describing every input variable as a distribution requires knowledge of the distribution, which may or may not be available, and the time and expense of determining the distribution parameters may be prohibitive. Therefore, the most influential parameters from the input data, such as mean values, standard deviations, shape parameters, and correlation coefficients, can be determined using an analytical sensitivity calculation based on the score function.