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The performance of environment perceiving sensors such as e.g. lidar, radar, camera and ultrasonic sensors is safety critical for automated driving vehicles. Therefore, one has to assess the sensors’ performance to assure the automated driving system’s safety. The performance of these sensors is however to some degree sensitive towards adverse weather conditions. A challenge is to quantify the effect of adverse weather conditions on the sensor’s performance early in the development of an automated driving system. This challenge is addressed in this work for lidar sensors. The lidar equation was previously employed in this context to derive estimates of a lidar’s maximum range in different weather conditions. In this work, we present a stochastic simulation framework based on a probabilistic extension of the lidar equation, to quantify the effect of adverse rainfall conditions on a lidar’s raw detection performance.