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This paper proposes a new methodology to conduct thermal analysis in the conceptual phase of the aircraft development process. Traditionally, thermal analysis is conducted after the system architecture has already been defined. The aircraft system thermal environment evaluation may lead to late design changes that can have a significant impact on the development process. To reduce the risk of late design changes, thermal requirements need to be defined and validated in the conceptual design phase. This research paper introduces a novel multi-level modeling strategy based on a bottom-up approach. It proposes an automatic geometrical simplification procedure for Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) analysis, a methodology for the generation of analytical correlations based on highly detailed methods, and a thermal risk assessment approach based on dimensionless numbers.