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An age-dependent, serious-to-fatal (AIS3+), thoracic risk curve was derived and evaluated for frontal impacts. The study consisted of four parts. In Part 1, two datasets of post mortem human subjects (PMHS) were generated for statistical and sensitivity analyses. In Part 2, logistic regression analyses were conducted. For each dataset, two statistical methods were applied: (1) a conventional maximum likelihood method, and (2) a modified maximum likelihood method. Therefore, four statistical models were derived — one for each dataset/statistical method combination. For all of the resulting statistical models (risk curves), the linear combination of maximum normalized sternum deflection and age of the PMHS was identified as a feasible predictor of AIS3+ thoracic injury probability. In Part 3, the PMHS-based risk curves were transformed into test-dummy-based risk curves. In Part 4, validation studies were conducted for each risk curve.

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) models are routinely being adopted as a means of up-front design for automotive body structure design. FEA models play two important functions: first as a means of assessing design versus an absolute target; secondly they are used to assess the performance of design alternatives required to meet targets. Means of assessing model capability versus task is required to feed appropriate information into the design process. Being able to document model capability improves the credibility of the FEA model information. A prior paper addressed assessing the absolute performance of model technology using a metric based on a statistical hypotheses test that determines membership in a reference set. This paper extends the use of quality technology to determining the capability of the FEA model to span the design space using Designed Experiments.