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In this paper, researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory present the results of simulation studies to evaluate potential fuel savings as a result of improvements to vehicle rolling resistance, coefficient of drag, and vehicle weight as well as hybridization for four powertrains for medium-duty parcel delivery vehicles. The vehicles will be modeled and simulated over 1,290 real-world driving trips to determine the fuel savings potential based on improvements to each technology and to identify best use cases for each platform. The results of impacts of new technologies on fuel saving will be presented, and the most favorable driving routes on which to adopt them will be explored.

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses a Monte Carlo method to generate parameter sets that are fed to a variant of the road load equation. The modeled road load is then compared to the measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the current state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters.