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This paper presents multiple methods for predicting heavy/medium-duty vehicle fuel consumption based on driving cycle information. A polynomial model, a black box artificial neural net model, a polynomial neural network model, and a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model were developed and verified using data collected from chassis testing performed on a parcel delivery diesel truck operating over the Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT), City Suburban Heavy Vehicle Cycle (CSHVC), New York Composite Cycle (NYCC), and hydraulic hybrid vehicle (HHV) drive cycles. Each model was trained using one of four drive cycles as a training cycle and the other three as testing cycles. By comparing the training and testing results, a representative training cycle was chosen and used to further tune each method.

This research project compares laboratory-measured fuel economy of a medium-duty diesel powered hydraulic hybrid vehicle drivetrain to both a conventional diesel drivetrain and a conventional gasoline drivetrain in a typical commercial parcel delivery application. Vehicles in this study included a model year 2012 Freightliner P10HH hybrid compared to a 2012 conventional gasoline P100 and a 2012 conventional diesel parcel delivery van of similar specifications. Drive cycle analysis of 484 days of hybrid parcel delivery van commercial operation from multiple vehicles was used to select three standard laboratory drive cycles as well as to create a custom representative cycle. These four cycles encompass and bracket the range of real world in-use data observed in Baltimore United Parcel Service operations.