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Reaching a system level reliability target is an inverse problem. Component level reliabilities are determined for a required system level reliability. Because this inverse problem does not have a unique solution, one approach is to tradeoff system reliability with cost and to allow the designer to select a design with a target system reliability, using his/her preferences. In this case, the component reliabilities are readily available from the calculation of the reliability-cost tradeoff. To arrive at the set of solutions to be traded off, one encounters two problems. First, the system reliability calculation is based on repeated system simulations where each system state, indicating which components work and which have failed, is tested to determine if it causes system failure, and second, the task of eliciting and encoding the decision maker's preferences is extremely difficult because of uncertainty in modeling the decision maker's preferences.

Operation & support costs for military weapon systems accounted for approximately 3/5th of the $500B Department of Defense budget in 2006. In an effort to ensure readiness and decrease these costs for ground vehicle fleets, health monitoring technologies are being developed for Condition-Based Maintenance of individual vehicles within a fleet. Dynamics-based health monitoring is used in this work because vibrations are a passive source of response data, which are global functions of the mechanical loading and properties of the vehicle. A common way of detecting faults in mechanical equipment, such as the suspension and chassis of a ground vehicle, is to compare measured operational vibrations to a reference (or healthy) signature to detect anomalies.

This paper addresses some aspects of an on-going multiyear research project for US Army TARDEC. The focus of the research project has been the enhancement of the overall vehicle reliability prediction process. This paper describes briefly few selected aspects of the new integrated reliability prediction approach. The integrated approach uses both computational mechanics predictions and experimental test databases for assessing vehicle system reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level.