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The oven shock test is an accelerated test which is often used to quantify the thermal durability of both coated and uncoated ceramic substrates. The test calls for heating the substrate for 30 minutes in an oven, which is preheated to specified temperature, and then cooling it in ambient environment for 30 minutes. Such a cycle induces axial and tangential stresses, during cooling, in the skin region whose magnitude depends on physical properties, oven temperature, radial temperature gradient and the aspect ratio of substrate. In addition, these stresses vary with time; their maximum values occur as soon as the substrate is taken out of the oven. This paper evaluates the severity of thermal stresses as function of above factors and estimates the probability and mode of failure during cooling using thermocouple data. Methods to reduce these stresses are discussed.