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An estimate of the rate of attrition of passenger cars, needed to establish the service life expectancy of passenger cars, is of major interest whenever long range production plans are made, marketing strategies are developed, the total needs of vehicles on the roads are estimated, etc. Estimation of vehicle attrition is very complex, however, due to the lack of accurate data and the interaction of the parameters affecting attrition. In 1980 and 1985, similar studies of attrition [1,2] utilized vehicle registration data available as of July, 1979 and as of July, 1984. The object of this paper is to update the results of these papers, using the 1991 July registration data, available in May 1992. Within the scope of this paper the attrition rates of various passenger cars are compared and the effect of geographical location on the attrition rates and the change in attrition rates during the past twenty years are discussed.

The approximate population of passenger cars in service and the rate of attrition of that population must be known when long range production plans are made, marketing strategies are developed, the total fuel need of the vehicles on U.S. roads is estimated, etc. Estimation of population is complex due to the lack of accurate data and the interactions between the parameters affecting attrition. Various methods are available to estimate the present and future population levels of passenger cars in service. Within the scope of this paper the projected populations of various passenger cars are compared and various attrition projection methods are discussed.