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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

The challenge of developing a robust, real-time driver gaze classification system is that it has to handle difficult edge cases that arise in real-world driving conditions: extreme lighting variations, eyeglass reflections, sunglasses and other occlusions. We propose a single-camera end-toend framework for classifying driver gaze into a discrete set of regions. This framework includes data collection, semi-automated annotation, offline classifier training, and an online real-time image processing pipeline that classifies the gaze region of the driver. We evaluate an implementation of each component on various subsets of a large onroad dataset. The key insight of our work is that robust driver gaze classification in real-world conditions is best approached by leveraging the power of supervised learning to generalize over the edge cases present in large annotated on-road datasets.

Advances in avionics and display technology are significantly changing the cockpit environment in current transport aircraft. The MIT Aeronautical Systems Lab (ASL) has developed a part-task flight simulator specifically to study the effects of these new technologies on flight crew situational awareness and performance. The simulator is based on a commercially-available graphics workstation, and can be rapidly reconfigured to meet the varying demands of experimental studies. The simulator has been successfully used to evaluate graphical microburst alerting displays, electronic instrument approach plates, terrain awareness and alerting displays, and ATC routing amendment delivery through digital datalinks.

This paper presents a numerical model of the rotational and lateral dynamics of the piston (secondary motion) and piston slap in mixed lubrication. Piston dynamic behavior, frictional and impact forces are predicted as functions of crank angle. The model considers piston skirt surface waviness, roughness, skirt profile, thermal and mechanical deformations. The model considers partially-flooded skirt and calculates the pressure distributions and friction in the piston skirt region for both hydrodynamic and boundary lubrication. Model predictions are compared with measurements of piston position using gap sensors in a single-cylinder engine and the comparison between theory and measurement shows remarkable agreement.

Accurately predicting real-world vehicle energy consumption is essential for optimizing vehicle designs, enhancing energy efficiency, and developing effective energy management strategies. This paper presents a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning techniques and a comprehensive dataset of vehicle parameters and environmental factors to create precise energy consumption prediction models. The methodology involves recording real-world vehicle data using data loggers to extract information from the CAN bus systems for ICE and hybrid electric, as well as hydrogen and battery fuel cell vehicles. Data cleaning and cycle-based analysis are employed to process the dataset for accurate energy consumption prediction. This includes cycle detection and analysis using methods from statistics and signal processing, and then pattern recognition based on these metrics.

Currently, states that are out of compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards must, according to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), develop and implement control strategies that demonstrate specific degrees of reduction in emissions-with the degree of reduction depending upon the severity of the problem. One tool that has been developed to aid regulators in both deciding an appropriate course of action and to demonstrate the desired reductions in mobile emissions is EPA's Mobile 5a emission estimation model. In our study, Mobile 5a has been used to examine the effects of regulatory strategies, as applied to the Northeast United States, on vehicle emissions under worst-case ozone-forming conditions.

MIT Lincoln Laboratory is tasked by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to investigate the use of the NEXRAD polarimetric radars* for the remote sensing of icing conditions hazardous to aircraft. A critical aspect of the investigation concerns validation that has relied upon commercial airline icing pilot reports and a dedicated campaign of in situ flights in winter storms. During the month of February in 2012 and 2013, the Convair-580 aircraft operated by the National Research Council of Canada was used for in situ validation of snowstorm characteristics under simultaneous observation by NEXRAD radars in Cleveland, Ohio and Buffalo, New York. The most anisotropic and easily distinguished winter targets to dual pol radar are ice crystals.

Low volume manufacturing has become increasingly important for the automotive industry. Globalization trends have led automakers and their suppliers to operate in developing regions where minimum efficient scales can not always be achieved. With proper maintenance, standard cast iron stamping tools can be used to produce millions of parts, but require large investments. Thus at high production volumes, the impact of the tooling investment on individual piece costs is minimized. However, at low volumes there is a substantial cost penalty. In light of the trends towards localized manufacturing and relatively low demands in some developing markets, low cost stamping tools are needed. Several alternate tooling technologies exist, each of which require significantly lower initial investments, but suffer from greatly reduced tool lives. However, the use of these technologies at intermediate to high volumes requires multiple tool sets thus eliminating their cost advantage.

Rare earths are a group of elements whose availability has been of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions and environmentally unsustainable mining practices. To evaluate the risks of rare earths availability to automakers, a first step is to determine raw material content and value in vehicles. This task is challenging because rare earth elements are used in small quantities, in a large number of components, and by suppliers far upstream in the supply chain. For this work, data on rare earth content reported by vehicle parts suppliers was assessed to estimate the rare earth usage of a typical conventional gasoline engine midsize sedan and a full hybrid sedan. Parts were selected from a large set of reported parts to build a hypothetical typical mid-size sedan. Estimates of rare earth content for vehicles with alternative powertrain and battery technologies were made based on the available parts' data.

The particulate matter (PM) produced from a diesel engine-simulating combustor was characterized in its morphology, microstructure, and fractal geometry by using a unique thermophoretic sampling and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) system. These results revealed that diesel PM produced from the laboratory-scale burner showed similar morphological characteristics to the particulates produced from diesel engines. The flame air/fuel ratio and the particulate temperature history have significant influences on both particle size and fractal geometry. The primary particle sizes were measured to be 14.7 nm and 14.8 nm under stoichiometric and fuel-rich flame conditions, respectively. These primary particle sizes are smaller than those produced from diesel engines. The radii of gyration for the aggregate particles were 83.8 nm and 47.5 nm under these two flame conditions.

This paper describes a post-race analysis of team KOMMIT EVT’s electric motorcycle data collected during the 2016 Pikes Peak International Hill Climb (PPIHC). The motorcycle consumed approximately 4 kWh of battery energy with an average and maximum speed of 107 km/h and 149 km/h, respectively. It was the second fastest electric motorcycle with a finishing time of 11:10.480. Data was logged of the motorcycle’s speed, acceleration, motor speed, power, currents, voltages, temperatures, throttle position, GPS position, rider’s heart rate and the ambient environment (air temperature, pressure and humidity). The data was used to understand the following factors that may have prevented a faster time: physical fitness of the rider, thermal limits of the motor and controller, available battery energy and the sprocket ratio between the motor and rear wheel.

To address the growing need for detailed chemistry in engine simulations, new software tools and validated data sets are being developed under an industry-funded consortium involving members from the automotive and fuels industry. The results described here include systematic comparison and validation of detailed chemistry models using a wide range of fundamental experimental data, and the development of software tools that support the use of detailed mechanisms in engineering simulations. Such tools include the automated reduction of reaction mechanisms for targeted simulation conditions. Selected results are presented and discussed.

A design framework based on the principles of lean manufacturing and axiomatic design was used as a guideline for designing an automotive component manufacturing system. A brief overview of this design decomposition is given to review its structure and usefulness. Examples are examined to demonstrate how this design framework was applied to the design of a gear manufacturing system. These examples demonstrate the impact that low-level design decisions can have on high-level system objectives and the need for a systems-thinking approach in manufacturing system design. Results are presented to show the estimated performance improvements resulting from the new system design.

Automatic code generation from models is actively used at Caterpillar for powertrain and machine control development. This technology was needed to satisfy the industry's demands for both increased software feature content, and its added complexity, and a short turn-around time. A pilot development effort was employed initially to roll out this new technology and shape the deployment strategy. As a result of a series of successful projects involving rapid prototyping and production code generation, Caterpillar will deploy MathWorks modeling and code generation products as their department-wide production development capability. The data collected indicated a reduction of person hours by a factor of 2 to 4 depending on the project and a reduction of calendar time by a factor of greater than 2. This paper discusses the challenges, results, and lessons learned, during this pilot effort from the perspectives of both Caterpillar and The MathWorks.

In 1998, light trucks accounted for over 48% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. and well over half the new Light Duty vehicle fuel consumption. The Light Truck Clean Diesel (LTCD) program seeks to introduce large numbers of advanced technology diesel engines in light-duty trucks that would improve their fuel economy (mpg) by at least 50% and reduce our nation's dependence on foreign oil. Incorporating diesel engines in this application represents a high-risk technical and economic challenge.

Two critical milestones that must be achieved during concept design are 1) definition of a product architecture that meets performance, producibility, and strategic objectives, and 2) estimation of the integration risk in each candidate concept. This paper addresses these issues by describing the role played by the producibility members of an Integrated Product Team (IPT) during concept design. Our focus is on the execution of the what we call the “chain method”, which illustrates the structure of function delivery in a concept in a simple pictorial way and helps the IPT to understand the advantages or disadvantages of using a modular or an integral product architecture. The producibility members play a central role in capturing and evaluating the chains for different candidate concepts and decompositions.

The Challenger 65 agricultural tractor combines the best features of current four wheel drive machines; speed, on-road mobility, and operator comfort with the well recognized advantages of track-type machines; tractive efficiency and reduced soil compaction.

In today's highly competitive automotive markets manufacturers must provide high quality products to survive. Manufacturers can achieve higher levels of quality by changing or improving their manufacturing process and/or by product inspection where many strategies with different cost implications are often available. Cost of Quality (CoQ) reconciles the competing objectives of quality maximization and cost minimization and serves as a useful framework for comparing available manufacturing process and inspection alternatives. In this paper, an analytic CoQ framework is discussed and some key findings are demonstrated using a set of basic inspection strategy scenarios. A case of a welded automotive assembly is chosen to explore the CoQ tradeoffs in inspection strategy selection and the value of welding process improvement. In the assembly process, many individual components are welded in series and each weld is inspected for quality.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

Knowledge mapping is a first and mandatory step in creation of system architecture. This paper considers the conceptual modeling of automotive systems, and discusses the creation of a knowledge-based model with respect to the Object Process Methodology an approach used in designing intelligent systems by depicting them using object models and process models. With this knowledge, systems engineer should consider what a product is comprised of (its structure), how it operates (its dynamics), and how it interacts with the environment. As systems have become more complex, a prevalent problem in systems development has been the number of accruing errors. A clearly defined and consistent mapping of knowledge regarding structure, operation and interaction is necessary to construct an effective and useful system. An interactive, iterative and consistent method is needed to cope with this complex and circular problem.