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The Chinese government and industries have proposed strategic plans and policies for automotive renewable-energy transformation in response to China’s commitments to peak the national carbon emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We thus analyze the evolution of carbon emissions from the vehicle fleet in China with our data-driven models based on these plans. Our results indicate that the vehicle life-cycle carbon emissions are appreciable, accounting for 8.9% of the national total and 11.3% of energy combustion in 2020. Commercial vehicles are the primary source of automotive carbon emissions, accounting for about 60% of the vehicle energy cycle. Among these, heavy-duty trucks are the most important, producing 38.99% of the total carbon emissions in the vehicle operation stage in 2020 and 52.18% in 2035.

The driving conditions of commercial logistics vehicles have the characteristics of combined urban and suburban roads with relatively fixed mileage and cargo load alteration, which affect the vehicular fuel economy. To this end, an adaptive equivalent consumption minimization strategy (A-ECMS) with vehicle speed and weight recognition is proposed to improve the fuel economy for a range-extender electric van for logistics in this work. The driving conditions are divided into nine representative groups with different vehicle speed and weight statuses, and the driving patterns are recognized with the use of the bagged trees algorithm through vehicle simulations. In order to generate the reference SOC near the optimal values, the optimal SOC trajectories under the typical driving cycles with different loads are solved by the shooting method and the optimal slopes for these nine patterns are obtained.