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The Chinese government and industries have proposed strategic plans and policies for automotive renewable-energy transformation in response to China’s commitments to peak the national carbon emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We thus analyze the evolution of carbon emissions from the vehicle fleet in China with our data-driven models based on these plans. Our results indicate that the vehicle life-cycle carbon emissions are appreciable, accounting for 8.9% of the national total and 11.3% of energy combustion in 2020. Commercial vehicles are the primary source of automotive carbon emissions, accounting for about 60% of the vehicle energy cycle. Among these, heavy-duty trucks are the most important, producing 38.99% of the total carbon emissions in the vehicle operation stage in 2020 and 52.18% in 2035.

Numerical analysis of thermal efficiency improvement up to 45% of an 1.8-liter turbocharged direct-injection (DI) gasoline engine was conducted in this study in response to the need of improving vehicle fuel economy. 1D thermodynamics simulations and 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling were carried out to investigate the technical approaches for improving engine thermal efficiency. Effects of various technologies on the improvement in the engine performance were evaluated, and then the technical routes to achieve 41% and 45% brake thermal efficiency were summarized, respectively. It is concluded that 41% thermal efficiency can be reached under stoichiometric combustion conditions, while it is expected lean burn technology is needed for the target of 45% thermal efficiency. The effects of high tumble intake flow on accelerating burning speed and of high compression ratio on intensifying knocking were analyzed.