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Simulation models for second-by-second fuel rate, and engine-out and tailpipe emissions of CO, HC, and NOx from a “composite” car in hot engine and catalyst conditions are presented and tested using Federal Test Procedure Revision Project (FTPRP) data from 15 1991-1994 cars. The models are constructed as a combination of simple science and curve fitting to the FTPRP data. The models are preliminary, the simplest models being presented to illustrate how much can be predicted with very few parameters. Fuel rate and engine out emissions of all three pollutants are accurately predicted. The tailpipe emissions models are only moderately successful, largely because we are only moderately successful in predicting catalyst pass fractions during low power driving. Nevertheless, the composite car shows regular emissions behavior, and these are modeled effectively.

Malfunctioning emission controls continue to be a major source of emissions from in-use vehicles. We analyze two sources of data on cars with malfunctioning emissions controls: remote sensing surveys and dynamometer tests of cars in the condition they were received. Our analysis indicates that roughly 8 percent of relatively new (2- to 5-year old), modern technology (fuel-injected) cars have malfunctioning emission controls. There is a wide range in the probability of malfunction of specific models, from zero to over 20 percent. Possible causes of high model-specific malfunction probability are poor initial design and/or manufacture.

A hybrid car is conceptually described and analyzed which meets the goal of a factor of three improvement in fuel economy set by the government-industry collaboration, Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, announced Sept. 29, 1993. This car combines an internal combustion engine with a low-energy, but high-power capacity, storage unit, such as a capacitor or flywheel. The storage capacity is one-half kWh. All energy requirements are ultimately met from the fuel tank. Essentially all the performance achievements of current conventional cars are met by this hybrid. Two versions of the hybrid are considered: one in which the vehicle loads are the same as those of the average 1993 car, but the drive train is replaced with a hybrid system, and one, where, in addition, the vehicle loads are reduced, at fixed performance and interior volume, to levels slightly beyond the best achievements in current production vehicles.