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This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of emerging powertrain technologies for a wide spectrum of vehicles, ranging from light-duty passenger vehicles to medium and heavy-duty trucks. The study focuses on the anticipated evolution of these technologies over the coming decades, assessing their potential benefits and impact on sustainability. The analysis encompasses simulations across a wide range of vehicle classes, including compact, midsize, small SUVs, midsize SUVs, and pickups, as well as various truck types, such as class 4 step vans, class 6 box trucks, and class 8 regional and long-haul trucks. It evaluates key performance metrics, including fuel consumption, estimated purchase price, and total cost of ownership, for these vehicles equipped with advanced powertrain technologies such as mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains.

Improvements in vehicle technology impact the purchase price of a vehicle and its operating cost. In this study, the monetary benefit of a technology improvement includes the potential reduction in vehicle price from using cheaper or smaller components, as well as the discounted value of the fuel cost savings. As technology progresses over time, the value and benefit of improving technology varies as well. In this study, the value of improving a few selected technologies (battery energy density, electric drive efficiency, tire rolling resistance, aerodynamics, light weighting) is studied and the value of the associated cost saving is quantified. The change in saving as a function of time, powertrain selection and vehicle type is also quantified. For example, a 10% reduction in aerodynamic losses is worth $24,222 today but only $8,810 in 2030 in an electric long haul truck. The decrease in value is primarily due to expected battery cost reduction over time.

In order to reduce fuel consumption, companies have been looking at hybridizing vehicles. So far, two main hybridization options have been considered: electric and hydraulic hybrids. Because of light duty vehicle operating conditions and the high energy density of batteries, electric hybrids are being widely used for cars. However, companies are still evaluating both hybridization options for medium and heavy duty vehicles. Trucks generally demand very large regenerative power and frequent stop-and-go. In that situation, hydraulic systems could offer an advantage over electric drive systems because the hydraulic motor and accumulator can handle high power with small volume capacity. This study compares the fuel displacement of class 6 trucks using a hydraulic system compared to conventional and hybrid electric vehicles. The paper will describe the component technology and sizes of each powertrain as well as their overall vehicle level control strategies.