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The statistical analysis of vehicle crash accident data is generally problematic. Data from commonly used sources is almost never without error and complete. Consequently, many analyses are contaminated with modeling and system identification errors. In some cases the effect of influential factors such as crash severity (the most significant component being speed) driver behavior prior to the crash, etc. on vehicle and occupant outcome is not adequately addressed. The speed that the vehicle is traveling at the initiation of a crash is a significant contributor to occupant risk. Not incorporating it may make an accident analysis irrelevant; however, despite its importance this information is not included in many of the commonly used crash data bases, such as the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Missing speed information can result in potential errors propagating throughout the analysis, unless a method is developed to account for the missing information.

Strength and fatigue life prediction is very difficult for stamped structural steel parts because the manufacturing process alters the localized material properties. Traditional tensile tests cannot be used to obtain material properties due to size limitations. Because of this, FEA predictions are most often “directional” at best. In this paper an improved prediction methodology is suggested. With a material library developed from standard homogenous test specimens, or even textbook material property tables, localized strength and plastic strain numbers can be inferred from localized hardness tests(1). The new method, using standard ABAQUS static analysis (not commercial fatigue analysis software with many unknowns), is shown to be very accurate. This paper compares the new process FEA strength and fatigue life predictions to laboratory test results using statistical confidence intervals.

Vehicle exhaust components and systems under fatigue loading often show multiple failure modes, which should be treated, at least theoretically, with rigorous advanced bi-modal and multi-modal statistical theories and approaches. These advanced methods are usually applied to mission-critical engineering applications such as nuclear and aerospace, in which large amounts of test data are often available. In the automotive industry, however, the sample size adopted in the product validation is usually small, thus the bi-modal and multi-modal phenomena cannot be distinguished with certainty.

In the Big Data era, the capability in statistical and probabilistic data characterization, data pattern identification, data modeling and analysis is critical to understand the data, to find the trends in the data, and to make better use of the data. In this paper the fundamental probability concepts and several commonly used probabilistic distribution functions, such as the Weibull for spectrum events and the Pareto for extreme/rare events, are described first. An event quadrant is subsequently established based on the commonality/rarity and impact/effect of the probabilistic events. Level of measurement, which is the key for quantitative measurement of the data, is also discussed based on the framework of probability. The damage density function, which is a measure of the relative damage contribution of each constituent is proposed. The new measure demonstrates its capability in distinguishing between the extreme/rare events and the spectrum events.

This paper introduces a methodology to calculate confidence bounds for a normal and Weibull distribution using Monte Carlo pivotal statistics. As an example, a ready-to-use lookup table to calculate one-sided lower confidence bounds is established and demonstrated for normal and Weibull distributions. The concept of one-sided lower tolerance limits for a normal distribution was first introduced by G. J. Lieberman in 1958 (later modified by Link in 1985 and Wei in 2012), and has been widely used in the automotive industry because of the easy-to-use lookup tables. Monte Carlo simulation methods presented here are more accurate as they eliminate assumptions and approximations inherent in existing approaches by using random experiments. This developed methodology can be used to generate confidence bounds for any parametric distribution. The ready-to-use table for the one-sided lower tolerance limits for a Weibull distribution is presented.

In this paper, the development of random vibration testing schedules for durability design verification of engine mounted products is presented, based on the equivalent fatigue damage concept and the 95th-percentile customer engine usage data for 150,000 miles. Development of the 95th-percentile customer usage profile is first discussed. Following that, the field engine excitation and engine duty cycle definition is introduced. By using a simplified transfer function of a single degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system subjected to a base excitation, the response acceleration and stress PSDs are related to the input excitation in PSD, which is the equivalent fatigue damage concept. Also, the narrow-band fatigue damage spectrum (FDS) is calculated in terms of the input excitation PSD based on the Miner linear damage rule, the Rayleigh statistical distribution for stress amplitude, a material's S-N curve, and the Miles approximate solution.

Reliable testing of a mechanical system requires the procedures used for the evaluation to be repeatable and reproducible. However, it is never possible to exactly repeat or reproduce the tests that are used for evaluation. To overcome this limitation, a statistical evaluation procedure can generally be used. However, most of the statistical procedures use scalar values as input without the ability to handle vectors or time-histories. To overcome these limitations, two numerical/statistical methods for determining if the impact time-history response of a mechanical system is repeatable or reproducible are evaluated and elaborated upon. Such a system could be a vehicle, a biological human surrogate, an Anthropometric Test Device (ATD or dummy), etc. The responses could be sets of time-histories of accelerations, forces, moments, etc., of a component or of the system. The example system evaluated is the BioRID II rear impact dummy.

In an environment of tougher engineering constraints to deliver tomorrow's aerodynamic vehicles, evaluation of aerodynamics early in the design process using digital prototypes and simulation tools has become more crucial for meeting cost and performance targets. Engineering needs have increased the demands on simulation software to provide robust solutions under a range of operating conditions and with detailed geometry representation. In this paper the application of simulation tools to wheel design in on-road operating conditions is explored. Typically, wheel and wheel cover design is investigated using physical tests very late in the development process, and requires costly testing of many sets of wheels in an on-road testing environment (either coast-down testing or a moving-ground wind-tunnel).

This paper will define the process for correlating fatigue based customer duty cycle with laboratory bench test data. The process includes the development of the Median and Design Load-Life curve equations. The Median Load-Life curve is a best fit linear regression; whereas, the Design Load-Life curve incorporates component specific reliability and confidence targets. To account for the statistical distribution of fatigue life, due to sample size, the one-side lower-bound tolerance limit method ( Lieberman, 1958 ) will be utilized. This paper will include a correlation between the predicted design fatigue life and the actual product life.

Durability life is one of the major concerns in the automotive industry. Road Load Data Acquisition (RLDA) is one of the most important steps to verify exhaust system durability performance. RLDA will not only provide data for system level rig testing drive file development but also for exhaust components validation (computing safety factors). Modal transient FEA can be utilized to simulate either vehicle durability testing or sub-system level rig testing. How to simulate correctly is critical in the simulation. One of the most challenging portions in the full exhaust system simulation is isolator modeling due to its non-linear characteristics. However, we have to use linear modeling to simulate isolator in modal transient analysis, which induces errors.

The approaches of obtaining both fatigue strength distribution and fatigue life distribution for a given set of fatigue S-N data are reviewed in this paper. A new fatigue S-N curve transformation technique, which is based on the fundamental statistics definition and some reasonable assumptions, is specifically developed in this paper to transform a fatigue life distribution to a fatigue strength distribution. The procedures of applying the technique to multiple-stress level, two-stress level, and one-stress level fatigue S-N data are presented.

The Cardan joint of a steerable beam front axle is a complicated mechanical component. It is subjected to drive torque, speed fluctuations, and joint articulation due to powertrain inputs, steering, and suspension kinematics. This combination of high torque and speed fluctuations of the Cardan joint, due to high input drive torque and/or high steer angle maneuvers, can result in premature joint wear. Initially, some observations of premature wear were not well understood based on the existing laboratory and road test data. The present work summarizes a coordinated program of computer modeling, vehicle Rough Road data acquisition, and physical testing used to predict the joint dynamics and to develop advanced testing procedures. Results indicate analytical modeling can predict forces resulting from Cardan joint dynamics for high torque/high turn angle maneuvers, as represented by time history traces recorded in rough road data acquisition.

Component bench testing is a basic method to validate the component fatigue life. However, the component bench testing takes long time and is costly. With the development of more powerful computer and CAE simulation techniques, virtual CAE simulation method becomes more important in the component design, optimization, and validation due to its efficiency and low cost. Fatigue life of components of exhaust system is a critical characteristic and it is not deterministic but statistical phenomenon. Thus, a probabilistic approach is necessary. Variations and reliability of fatigue life can be considered in physical testing by testing more samples. However, how to account variations from manufacturing and testing in virtual CAE simulation is a big challenge. In this paper, a virtual CAE fatigue life prediction of components of exhaust system by probabilistic approach is studied and proposed.

Fatigue testing and related fatigue life assessment are essential parts of the design and validation processes of vehicle components and systems. Fatigue bench test is one of the most important testing methods for durability and reliability assessment, and its primary function is to construct design curves based on a certain amount of repeated tests, with which recommendations on product design can be advised. How to increase the accuracy of predictions from test results, the associated life assessment, and to reduce the cost through reducing test sample size is an active and continuous effort. In this paper the current engineering practices on constructing design curves for fatigue test data are reviewed first.

A modern definition of quality control and improvement is the reduction of variability in processes and products. The reduced variability can be directly translated into lower costs, better functions and fewer repairs. However, the final quality of processes and products is sometimes derived from other measured variables through some implicit or explicit functional relationships. Sometimes, a tiny uncertainty in a variable can produce a huge uncertainty in a derived quantity. Therefore, the propagation of uncertainty needs to be understood and the individual variables need to be well controlled. More importantly, the critical factors that affect quality the most should be identified and thoroughly investigated. Design of experiments and statistical control plays central roles in finding root cause of failure, reduction of variability and quality improvement.

Fuel Tank Straps very often get different durability fatigue test results from different types of durability testing such as shaker table vibration, road test simulator (RTS) vehicle testing and proving ground vehicle durability testing. One test produces good durability results and other may indicate some durability risk. A special study was conducted to address this inconsistency. It was found that fuel level in the tank plays a big role in fuel tank strap durability. Higher fuel levels in a tank produce higher loads in straps and lower fatigue life. This paper will use a CAE fuel tank strap model and acquired proving ground strap load data to study fuel level influence in fuel tank strap durability. The fuel level study includes a full tank of fuel, 3 quarters tank of fuel, a half tank of fuel and one quarter tank of fuel.

In product design and development stage, validation assessment methods that can provide very high reliability and confidence levels are becoming highly demanded. High reliability and confidence can generally be achieved and demonstrated by conducting a large number of tests with the traditional approaches. However, budget constraints, test timing, and many other factors significantly limit test sample sizes. How to achieve high reliability and confidence levels with limited sample sizes is of significant importance in engineering applications. In this paper, such approaches are developed for two fundamental and widely used methods, i.e. the test-to-failure method and the Binomial test method. The concept of RxxCyy (e.g. R90C90 indicates 90% in reliability and 90% in confidence) is used as a criterion to measure the reliability and confidence in both the test-to-failure and the Binomial test methods.