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The European Union road transport CO2 emissions regulation foresees mandatory targets for passenger vehicles. However, several studies have shown that there is a divergence between official and real-world values that could range up to 40% compared to the NEDC reference value. The introduction of the Worldwide Harmonized Test Protocol (WLTP) limited this divergence, but it is uncertain whether it can adequately address the problem, particularly considering future evolutions of vehicle technology. In order to address this issue, the recent EU CO2-standards regulation introduces the monitoring of on-road fuel consumption and subsequently CO2 emissions by utilizing On-Board Fuel Consumption Meters (OBFCM). In the near future, all vehicles should provide instantaneous and lifetime-cumulative fuel consumption signals at the diagnostics port. Currently, the fuel consumption signal is not always available.

The battery of a vehicle with an electrified powertrain (Hybrid Electric Vehicle or Battery Electric Vehicle), is required to operate with highly dynamic power outputs, both for charging and discharging operation. Consequently, the battery current varies within an extensive range during operation and the battery temperature also changes. In some cases, the relationship between the current flow and the change in the electrical energy stored seems to be affected by inefficiencies, in literature described as current losses, and nonlinearities, typically associated with the complex chemical and physical processes taking place in the battery. When calculating the vehicle electrical energy consumption over a trip, the change in the electrical energy stored at vehicle-level has to be taken into account. This quantity, what we could call the vehicle electricity balance, is typically obtained through a time-based integration of the battery current of all the vehicle batteries during operation.

A vital element of any vehicle-certification test is the use of representative values for the vehicle resistance forces. In most certification procedures, including the WLTP recently adopted by the EU, the latter is achieved mainly through coast down tests. Subsequently, the resistance values measured are used for setting up the chassis-dyno resistances applied during the laboratory measurements. These reference values are obtained under controlled conditions, while a series of corrections are applied to make the test procedure more repeatable and reproducible. In real driving, the actual vehicle road loads are influenced by a series of factors leading to a divergence between the certified fuel consumption values, and the real-world ones. An approach of calculating representative road loads during on-road tests can help to obtain a more unobstructed view of vehicle efficiency and, when needed, confirm the officially declared road loads.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are one of the main technology options for reducing vehicle CO2 emissions and helping vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) to meet the CO2 targets set by different Governments from all around the world. In Europe OEMs have introduced a number of PHEV models to meet their CO2 target of 95 g/km for passenger cars set for the year 2021. Fuel consumption (FC) and CO2 emissions from PHEVs, however, strongly depend on the way they are used and on the frequency with which their battery is charged by the user. Studies have indeed revealed that in real life, with poor charging behavior from users, PHEV FC is equivalent to that of conventional vehicles, and in some cases higher, due to the increased mass and the need to keep the battery at a certain charging level.

The paper describes the development of a modelling approach to simulate the effect of the new Worldwide harmonized Light duty Test Procedure (WLTP) on the certified CO2 emissions of light duty vehicles. The European fleet has been divided into a number of segments based on specific vehicle characteristics and technologies. Representative vehicles for each segment were selected. A test protocol has been developed in order to generate the necessary data for the validation of the vehicle simulation models. In order to minimize the sources of uncertainty and the effects of flexibilities, a reference “template model” was developed to be used in the study. Subsequently, vehicle models were developed using AVL Cruise simulation software based on the above mentioned template model. The various components and sub-modules of the models, as well as their input parameters, have been defined with the support of the respective OEMs.

Governments worldwide are taking actions aiming to achieve a sustainable transportation system that can comprise of minimal pollutant and GHG emissions. Particular attention is given to the real-world emissions, i.e. to the emissions achieved in the real driving conditions, outside of a controlled testing environment. In this framework, interest in vehicle fleet electrification is rapidly growing, as it is seen as a way to simultaneously reduce pollutant and GHG emissions, while on the other hand OEMs are facing a significant increase in the number of tests which are needed to calibrate this new generation of electrified powertrains over a variety of different driving scenarios.

The Vehicle Energy Consumption calculation Tool (VECTO) is used for the official calculation and reporting of CO2 emissions of HDVs in Europe. It uses certified input data in the form of energy or torque loss maps of driveline components and engine fuel consumption maps. Such data are proprietary and are not disclosed. Any further analysis of the fleet performance and CO2 emissions evolution using VECTO would require generic inputs or reconstructing realistic component input data. The current study attempts to address this issue by developing a process that would create VECTO input files based as much as possible on publicly available data. The core of the process is a series of models that calculate the vehicle component efficiency maps and produce the necessary VECTO input data. The process was applied to generate vehicle input files for rigid trucks and tractor-trailers of HDV Classes 4, 5, 9 and 10.

The Vehicle Energy Consumption calculation Tool (VECTO) is used in Europe for calculating standardised energy consumption and CO2 emissions from Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDTs) for certification purposes. The tool requires detailed vehicle technical specifications and a series of component efficiency maps, which are difficult to retrieve for those that are outside of the manufacturing industry. In the context of quantifying HDT CO2 emissions, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission received VECTO simulation data of the 2016 vehicle fleet from the vehicle manufacturers. In previous work, this simulation data has been normalised to compensate for differences and issues in the quality of the input data used to run the simulations. This work, which is a continuation of the previous exercise, focuses on the deeper meaning of the data received to understand the factors contributing to energy and fuel consumption.

In 2023, the European Union set more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars: the new fleet-wide average targets became 93.6 g/km for 2025, 49.5 g/km in 2030, going to 0 in 2035. One year away from the 2025 target, this study evaluates what contribution to CO2 reduction was achieved from new conventional vehicles and how to interpret forecasts for future efficiency gains. The European Commission’s vehicle efficiency cost-curves suggest that optimal technology adoption can guarantee up to 50% CO2 reduction by 2025 for conventional vehicles. Official registration data between 2013 and 2022, however, reveal only an average 14% increase in fuel efficiency in standard combustion vehicles, although reaching almost 23% for standard hybrids. The smallest gap between certified emissions and best-case scenarios is of 14 g/km, suggesting that some manufacturers’ declared values are approaching the optimum.