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A simulation-based, system reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) method is presented that can handle problems with multiple failure regions and correlated random variables. Copulas are used to represent the correlation. The method uses a Probabilistic Re-Analysis (PRRA) approach in conjunction with a trust-region optimization approach and local metamodels covering each trust region. PRRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability of a design by performing a single Monte Carlo (MC) simulation per trust region. Although PRRA is based on MC simulation, it calculates “smooth” sensitivity derivatives, allowing therefore, the use of a gradient-based optimizer. The PRRA method is based on importance sampling. It provides accurate results, if the support of the sampling PDF contains the support of the joint PDF of the input random variables. The sequential, trust-region optimization approach satisfies this requirement.

Piston design is a challenging engineering problem which involves complex physics and requires satisfying multiple performance objectives. Uncertainty in piston operating conditions and variability in piston design variables are inevitable and must be accounted for. The piston assembly can be a major source of engine mechanical friction and cold start noise, if not designed properly. In this paper, an analytical piston model is used in a deterministic and probabilistic (reliability-based) multi-objective design optimization process to obtain an optimal piston design. The model predicts piston performance in terms of scuffing, friction and noise, In order to keep the computational cost low, efficient and accurate metamodels of the piston performance metrics are used. The Pareto set of all optimal solutions is calculated allowing the designer to choose the “best” solution according to trade-offs among the multiple objectives.

This paper presents a computational framework for the physics-based simulation of light vehicles operating on discrete terrain. The focus is on characterizing through simulation the mobility of vehicles that weigh 1000 pounds or less, such as a reconnaissance robot. The terrain is considered to be deformable and is represented as a collection of bodies of spherical shape. The modeling stage relies on a novel formulation of the frictional contact problem that requires at each time step of the numerical simulation the solution of an optimization problem. The proposed computational framework, when run on ubiquitous Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) cards, allows the simulation of systems in which the terrain is represented by more than 0.5 million bodies leading to problems with more than one million degrees of freedom.

Vehicle restraint system design is a difficult optimization problem to solve because (1) the nature of the problem is highly nonlinear, non-convex, noisy, and discontinuous; (2) there are large numbers of discrete and continuous design variables; (3) a design has to meet safety performance requirements for multiple crash modes simultaneously, hence there are a large number of design constraints. Based on the above knowledge of the problem, it is understandable why design of experiment (DOE) does not produce a high-percentage of feasible solutions, and it is difficult for response surface methods (RSM) to capture the true landscape of the problem. Furthermore, in order to keep the restraint system more robust, the complexity of restraint system content needs to be minimized in addition to minimizing the relative risk score to achieve New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) 5-star rating.

Since transient vehicle HVAC computational fluids (CFD) simulations take too long to solve in a production environment, the goal of this project is to automatically create a lumped-parameter flow network from a steady-state CFD that solves nearly instantaneously. The data mining algorithm k-means is implemented to automatically discover flow features and form the network (a reduced order model). The lumped-parameter network is implemented in the commercial thermal solver MuSES to then run as a fully transient simulation. Using this network a “localized heat transfer coefficient” is shown to be an improvement over existing techniques. Also, it was found that the use of the clustering created a new flow visualization technique. Finally, fixing clusters near equipment newly demonstrates a capability to track localized temperatures near specific objects (such as equipment in vehicles).

Through inverse dynamics-based modeling and computer simulations for a 6×6 Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) - a 6×6 truck - in stochastic terrain conditions, this paper analytically presents a coupled impact of different driveline system configurations and a suspension design on vehicle dynamics, including vehicle mobility, and energy efficiency. A new approach in this research work involves an estimation of each axle contribution to the level of potential mobility loss/increase and/or energy consumption increase/ reduction. As it is shown, the drive axles of the vehicle interfere with the vehicle's dynamics through the distribution of the wheels' normal reactions and wheel torques. The interference causes the independent system dynamics to become operationally coupled/fused and thus diminishes vehicle mobility and energy efficiency. The analysis is done by the use of new mobility indices and energy efficiency indices which are functionally coupled/fused.

Implications of decision analysis (DA) on engineering design are important and well-documented. However, widespread adoption has not occurred. To that end, the authors recently proposed decision topologies (DT) as a visual method for representing decision situations and proved that they are entirely consistent with normative decision analysis. This paper addresses the practical issue of assessing the DTs of a designer using their responses. As in classical DA, this step is critical to encoding the DA's preferences so that further analysis and mathematical optimization can be performed on the correct set of preferences. We show how multi-attribute DTs can be directly assessed from DM responses. Furthermore, we show that preferences under uncertainty can be trivially incorporated and that topologies can be constructed using single attribute topologies similarly to multi-linear functions in utility analysis. This incremental construction simplifies the process of topology construction.

It is of considerable interest to developers of military vehicles, in early phases of the concept design process as well as in Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) phase, to quickly predict occupant injury risk due to under-body blast loading. The most common occupant injuries in these extremely short duration events arise out of the very high vertical acceleration of vehicle due to its close proximity to hot high pressure gases from the blast. In a prior study [16], an extensive parametric study was conducted in a systematic manner so as to create look-up tables or automated software tools that decision-makers can use to quickly estimate the different injury responses for both stroking and non-stroking seat systems in terms of a suitable blast load parameter. The primary objective of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of using such a tool in lieu of building a detailed model for simulation and occupant injury assessment.

Using the total probability theorem, we propose a method to calculate the failure rate of a linear vibratory system with random parameters excited by stationary Gaussian processes. The response of such a system is non-stationary because of the randomness of the input parameters. A space-filling design, such as optimal symmetric Latin hypercube sampling or maximin, is first used to sample the input parameter space. For each design point, the output process is stationary and Gaussian. We present two approaches to calculate the corresponding conditional probability of failure. A Kriging metamodel is then created between the input parameters and the output conditional probabilities allowing us to estimate the conditional probabilities for any set of input parameters. The total probability theorem is finally applied to calculate the time-dependent probability of failure and the failure rate of the dynamic system. The proposed method is demonstrated using a vibratory system.

There is randomness in both the applied loads and the strength of systems. Therefore, to account for the uncertainty, the safety of the system must be quantified using its reliability. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is widely used for probabilistic analysis because of its robustness. However, the high computational cost limits the accuracy of MCS. Smarslok et al. [2010] developed an improved sampling technique for reliability assessment called Separable Monte Carlo (SMC) that can significantly increase the accuracy of estimation without increasing the cost of sampling. However, this method was applied to time-invariant problems involving two random variables. This paper extends SMC to problems with multiple random variables and develops a novel method for estimation of the standard deviation of the probability of failure of a structure. The method is demonstrated and validated on reliability assessment of an offshore wind turbine under turbulent wind loads.

We have recently obtained experimental data and used them to develop computational models to quantify occupant impact responses and injury risks for military vehicles during frontal crashes. The number of experimental tests and model runs are however, relatively small due to their high cost. While this is true across the auto industry, it is particularly critical for the Army and other government agencies operating under tight budget constraints. In this study we investigate through statistical simulations how the injury risk varies if a large number of experimental tests were conducted. We show that the injury risk distribution is skewed to the right implying that, although most physical tests result in a small injury risk, there are occasional physical tests for which the injury risk is extremely large. We compute the probabilities of such events and use them to identify optimum design conditions to minimize such probabilities.

Assessing the dynamic performance of multilayer plates subjected to impulsive loading is of interest for identifying configurations that either absorb energy or transmit the energy in the transverse directions, thereby mitigating the through-thickness energy propagation. A reduced-order modeling approach is presented in this paper for rapidly evaluating the structural dynamic performance of various multilayer plate designs. The new approach is based on the reverberation matrix method (RMM) with the theory of generalized rays for fast analysis of the structural dynamic characteristics of multilayer plates. In the RMM model, the waves radiated from the dynamic load are reflected and refracted at each interface between layers, and the waves within each layer are transmitted with a phase lag. These two phenomena are represented by the global scattering matrix and the global phase matrix, respectively.

Mercury is a high-fidelity, physics-based object-oriented software for conducting simulations of vehicle performance evaluations for requirements and engineering metrics. Integrating cutting-edge, massively parallel modeling techniques for soft, cohesive and dry granular soil that will integrate state-of-the-art soil simulation with high-fidelity multi-body dynamics and powertrain modeling to provide a comprehensive mobility simulator for ground vehicles. The Mercury implements the Chrono::Vehicle dynamics library for vehicle dynamics, which provides multi-body dynamic simulation of wheeled and tracked vehicles. The powertrain is modeled using the Powertrain Analysis Computational Environment (PACE), a behavior-based powertrain analysis based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Autonomie software. Vehicle -terrain interaction (VTI) is simulated with the Ground Contact Element (GCE), which provides forces to the Chrono-vehicle solver.

The interaction of fuel sprays and in-cylinder flow in direct-injection engines is expected to alter kinetic energy and integral length scales at least during some portions of the engine cycle. High-speed particle image velocimetry was implemented in an optical four-valve, pent-roof spark-ignition direct-injection single-cylinder engine to quantify this effect. Non-firing motored engine tests were performed at 1300 RPM with and without fuel injection. Two fuel injection timings were investigated: injection in early intake stroke represents quasi-homogenous engine condition; and injection in mid compression stroke mimics the stratified combustion strategy. Two-dimensional crank angle resolved velocity fields were measured to examine the kinetic energy and integral length scale through critical portions of the engine cycle. Reynolds decomposition was applied on the obtained engine flow fields to extract the fluctuations as an indicator for the turbulent flow.

Optimizing the trade-off between reliability and cost of operating a microgrid, including vehicles as both loads and sources, can be a challenge. Optimal energy management is crucial to develop strategies to improve the efficiency and reliability of microgrids, as well as new communication networks to support optimal and reliable operation. Prior approaches modeled the grid using MATLAB, but did not include the detailed physics of loads and sources, and therefore missed the transient effects that are present in real-time operation of a microgrid. This article discusses the implementation of a physics-based detailed microgrid model including a diesel generator, wind turbine, photovoltaic array, and utility. All elements are modeled as sources in Simulink. Various loads are also implemented including an asynchronous motor. We show how a central control algorithm optimizes the microgrid by trying to maximize reliability while reducing operational cost.

This article presents an approach for comparing alternative repairable systems and calculating the value of information obtained by testing a specified number of such systems. More specifically, an approach is presented to determine the value of information that comes from field testing a specified number of systems in order to appropriately estimate the reliability metric associated with each of the respective repairable systems. Here the reliability of a repairable system will be measured by its failure rate. In support of the decision-making effort, the failure rate is translated into an expected utility based on a utility curve that represents the risk tolerance of the decision-maker. The algorithm calculates the change of the expected value of the decision with the sample size. The change in the value of the decision represents the value of information obtained from testing.

The US Army Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) has developed a unique physics based modeling & simulation (M&S) capability using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques to optimize automatic fire extinguishing system (AFES) designs and complement vehicle testing for both occupied and unoccupied spaces of military ground vehicles. The modeling techniques developed are based on reduced global kinetics for computational efficiency and are applicable to fire suppressants that are being used in Army vehicles namely, bromotrifluoromethane (Halon 1301), heptafluoropropane (HFC-227ea, trade name FM200), sodium-bicarbonate (SBC) powder, water + potassium acetate mixture, and pentafluoroethane (HFC-125, trade name, FE-25). These CFD simulations are performed using High Performance Computers (HPC) that enable the Army to assess AFES designs in a virtual world at far less cost than physical-fire tests.

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) operate based on image information and 3D maps generated by sensors like cameras, LIDARs and RADARs. This information is processed by the on-board processing units to provide the right actuation signals to drive the vehicle. For safe operation, these sensors should provide continuous high quality data to the processing units without interruption in all driving conditions like dust, rain, snow and any other adverse driving conditions. Any contamination on the sensor surface/lens due to rain droplets, snow, and other debris would result in adverse impact to the quality of data provided for sensor fusion and this could result in error states for autonomous driving. In particular, snow is a common contamination condition during driving that might block a sensor surface or camera lens. Predicting and preventing snow accumulation over the sensor surface of an AV is important to overcome this challenge.

A Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) method for multiple failure regions is presented. The method uses a Probabilistic Re-Analysis (PRRA) approach in conjunction with an approximate global metamodel with local refinements. The latter serves as an indicator to determine the failure and safe regions. PRRA calculates very efficiently the system reliability of a design by performing a single Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Although PRRA is based on MC simulation, it calculates “smooth” sensitivity derivatives, allowing therefore, the use of a gradient-based optimizer. An “accurate-on-demand” metamodel is used in the PRRA that allows us to handle problems with multiple disjoint failure regions and potentially multiple most-probable points (MPP). The multiple failure regions are identified by using a clustering technique. A maximin “space-filling” sampling technique is used to construct the metamodel. A vibration absorber example highlights the potential of the proposed method.

A common approach to the validation of simulation models focuses on validation throughout the entire design space. A more recent methodology validates designs as they are generated during a simulation-based optimization process. The latter method relies on validating the simulation model in a sequence of local domains. To improve its computational efficiency, this paper proposes an iterative process, where the size and shape of local domains at the current step are determined from a parametric bootstrap methodology involving maximum likelihood estimators of unknown model parameters from the previous step. Validation is carried out in the local domain at each step. The iterative process continues until the local domain does not change from iteration to iteration during the optimization process ensuring that a converged design optimum has been obtained.