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A vital element of any vehicle-certification test is the use of representative values for the vehicle resistance forces. In most certification procedures, including the WLTP recently adopted by the EU, the latter is achieved mainly through coast down tests. Subsequently, the resistance values measured are used for setting up the chassis-dyno resistances applied during the laboratory measurements. These reference values are obtained under controlled conditions, while a series of corrections are applied to make the test procedure more repeatable and reproducible. In real driving, the actual vehicle road loads are influenced by a series of factors leading to a divergence between the certified fuel consumption values, and the real-world ones. An approach of calculating representative road loads during on-road tests can help to obtain a more unobstructed view of vehicle efficiency and, when needed, confirm the officially declared road loads.

In 2023, the European Union set more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars: the new fleet-wide average targets became 93.6 g/km for 2025, 49.5 g/km in 2030, going to 0 in 2035. One year away from the 2025 target, this study evaluates what contribution to CO2 reduction was achieved from new conventional vehicles and how to interpret forecasts for future efficiency gains. The European Commission’s vehicle efficiency cost-curves suggest that optimal technology adoption can guarantee up to 50% CO2 reduction by 2025 for conventional vehicles. Official registration data between 2013 and 2022, however, reveal only an average 14% increase in fuel efficiency in standard combustion vehicles, although reaching almost 23% for standard hybrids. The smallest gap between certified emissions and best-case scenarios is of 14 g/km, suggesting that some manufacturers’ declared values are approaching the optimum.