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Warranty forecasting of repairable systems is very important for manufacturers of mass produced systems. It is desired to predict the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) after a censoring time using collected failure data before the censoring time. Moreover, systems may be produced with a defective component resulting in extensive warranty costs even after the defective component is detected and replaced with a new design. In this paper, we present a forecasting method to predict the ENF of a repairable system using observed data which is used to calibrate a Generalized Renewal Processes (GRP) model. Manufacturing of products may exhibit different production patterns with different failure statistics through time. For example, vehicles produced in different months may have different failure intensities because of supply chain differences or different skills of production workers, for example.

We have recently obtained experimental data and used them to develop computational models to quantify occupant impact responses and injury risks for military vehicles during frontal crashes. The number of experimental tests and model runs are however, relatively small due to their high cost. While this is true across the auto industry, it is particularly critical for the Army and other government agencies operating under tight budget constraints. In this study we investigate through statistical simulations how the injury risk varies if a large number of experimental tests were conducted. We show that the injury risk distribution is skewed to the right implying that, although most physical tests result in a small injury risk, there are occasional physical tests for which the injury risk is extremely large. We compute the probabilities of such events and use them to identify optimum design conditions to minimize such probabilities.

Recent developments in time-dependent reliability have introduced the concept of a composite limit state. The composite limit state method can be used to calculate the time-dependent probability of failure for dynamic systems with limit-state functions of input random variables, input random processes and explicit in time. The probability of failure can be calculated exactly using the composite limit state if the instantaneous limit states are linear, forming an open or close polytope, and are functions of only two random variables. In this work, the restriction on the number of random variables is lifted. The proposed algorithm is accurate and efficient for linear instantaneous limit state functions of any number of random variables. An example on the design of a hydrokinetic turbine blade under time-dependent river flow load demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed general composite limit state approach.

Reaching a system level reliability target is an inverse problem. Component level reliabilities are determined for a required system level reliability. Because this inverse problem does not have a unique solution, one approach is to tradeoff system reliability with cost and to allow the designer to select a design with a target system reliability, using his/her preferences. In this case, the component reliabilities are readily available from the calculation of the reliability-cost tradeoff. To arrive at the set of solutions to be traded off, one encounters two problems. First, the system reliability calculation is based on repeated system simulations where each system state, indicating which components work and which have failed, is tested to determine if it causes system failure, and second, the task of eliciting and encoding the decision maker's preferences is extremely difficult because of uncertainty in modeling the decision maker's preferences.

Vehicle surface contamination can degrade not only soldier vision but also the effectiveness of camera and sensor systems mounted externally on the vehicle for autonomy and situational awareness. In order to control vehicle surface contamination, a better understanding of dust particle generation, transport and accumulation is necessary. The focus of the present work is simulation of vehicle surface contamination on the rear part of the vehicle due to the interaction of the combat vehicle track with the ground and dust in the surrounding ambient atmosphere. A notional tracked military vehicle is used for the Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. A CFD methodology with one-way-coupled Lagrangian particle modeling is used. The simulation is initially run with only air flow to solve the air pressure, velocity, and turbulence quantities in a steady state condition.

Diesel engine cold-start problems include long cranking periods, hesitation and white smoke emissions. A better understanding of these problems is essential to improve diesel engine cold-start. In this study computer simulation model is developed for the steady state and transient cold starting processes in a single-cylinder naturally aspirated direct injection diesel engine. The model is verified experimentally and utilized to determine the key parameters that affect the cranking period and combustion instability after the engine starts. The behavior of the fuel spray before and after it impinges on the combustion chamber walls was analyzed in each cycle during the cold-start operation. The analysis indicated that the accumulated fuel in combustion chamber has a major impact on engine cold starting through increasing engine compression pressure and temperature and increasing fuel vapor concentration in the combustion chamber during the ignition delay period.

All previous correlations of the ignition delay (ID) period in diesel combustion show a positive activation energy, which means that shorter ID periods are achieved at higher charge temperatures. This is not the case in the autoignition of most homogeneous hydrocarbons-air mixtures where they experience the NTC (Negative Temperature Coefficient ) regime in the intermediate temperature range, from about 800 K to 1000 K). Here, the autoignition reactions slow down and longer ID periods are experienced at higher temperatures. Accordingly the global activation energy for the autoignition reactions of homogeneous mixtures should vary from positive to negative values.

Mercury is a high-fidelity, physics-based object-oriented software for conducting simulations of vehicle performance evaluations for requirements and engineering metrics. Integrating cutting-edge, massively parallel modeling techniques for soft, cohesive and dry granular soil that will integrate state-of-the-art soil simulation with high-fidelity multi-body dynamics and powertrain modeling to provide a comprehensive mobility simulator for ground vehicles. The Mercury implements the Chrono::Vehicle dynamics library for vehicle dynamics, which provides multi-body dynamic simulation of wheeled and tracked vehicles. The powertrain is modeled using the Powertrain Analysis Computational Environment (PACE), a behavior-based powertrain analysis based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s Autonomie software. Vehicle -terrain interaction (VTI) is simulated with the Ground Contact Element (GCE), which provides forces to the Chrono-vehicle solver.

Optimizing the trade-off between reliability and cost of operating a microgrid, including vehicles as both loads and sources, can be a challenge. Optimal energy management is crucial to develop strategies to improve the efficiency and reliability of microgrids, as well as new communication networks to support optimal and reliable operation. Prior approaches modeled the grid using MATLAB, but did not include the detailed physics of loads and sources, and therefore missed the transient effects that are present in real-time operation of a microgrid. This article discusses the implementation of a physics-based detailed microgrid model including a diesel generator, wind turbine, photovoltaic array, and utility. All elements are modeled as sources in Simulink. Various loads are also implemented including an asynchronous motor. We show how a central control algorithm optimizes the microgrid by trying to maximize reliability while reducing operational cost.

This research paper addresses the ground vehicle reliability prediction process based on a new integrated reliability prediction framework. The integrated stochastic framework combines the computational physics-based predictions with experimental testing information for assessing vehicle reliability. The integrated reliability prediction approach incorporates the following computational steps: i) simulation of stochastic operational environment, ii) vehicle multi-body dynamics analysis, iii) stress prediction in subsystems and components, iv) stochastic progressive damage analysis, and v) component life prediction, including the effects of maintenance and, finally, iv) reliability prediction at component and system level. To solve efficiently and accurately the challenges coming from large-size computational mechanics models and high-dimensional stochastic spaces, a HPC simulation-based approach to the reliability problem was implemented.

Since transient vehicle HVAC computational fluids (CFD) simulations take too long to solve in a production environment, the goal of this project is to automatically create a lumped-parameter flow network from a steady-state CFD that solves nearly instantaneously. The data mining algorithm k-means is implemented to automatically discover flow features and form the network (a reduced order model). The lumped-parameter network is implemented in the commercial thermal solver MuSES to then run as a fully transient simulation. Using this network a “localized heat transfer coefficient” is shown to be an improvement over existing techniques. Also, it was found that the use of the clustering created a new flow visualization technique. Finally, fixing clusters near equipment newly demonstrates a capability to track localized temperatures near specific objects (such as equipment in vehicles).

Real-time driving simulations are an important tool for verifying vehicle and vehicle component designs with a driver in the loop. They not only provide a cost effective solution but also an ability to verify designs in a safe and controlled operating environment. A real-time driving experiment has been developed for Stryker to compare the ride and handling performance of a baseline passive suspension to that of a Magneto-Rheological (MR) semi-active damper suspension. The Tank Automotive Research Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) has integrated this new suspension into a real time vehicle dynamics model of the Stryker using the MR suspension model developed by the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM). Using this real-time model and the TARDEC Ride Motion Simulator (RMS), TARDEC associates, along with associates from the Stryker Program Management office and the suspension OEM were able to drive and compare the passive and MR Stryker in a virtual environment.

The Powertrain Analysis and Computational Environment (PACE) is a forward-looking powertrain simulation tool that is ready for a High-Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The code, written in C++, is one actor in a comprehensive ground vehicle co-simulation architecture being developed by the CREATE-GV program. PACE provides an advanced behavioral modeling capability for the powertrain subsystem of a conventional or hybrid-electric vehicle that exploits the idea of reusable vehicle modeling that underpins the Autonomie modeling environment developed by the Argonne National Laboratory. PACE permits the user to define a powertrain in Autonomie, which requires a single desktop license for MATLAB/Simulink, and port it to a cluster computer where PACE runs with an open-source BSD-3 license so that it can be distributed to as many nodes as needed.

The objective of this study was to optimize the occupant restraint systems for a light tactical vehicle in frontal crashes. A combination of sled testing and computational modeling were performed to find the optimal seatbelt and airbag designs for protecting occupants represented by three size of ATDs and two military gear configurations. This study started with 20 sled frontal crash tests to setup the baseline performance of existing seatbelts, which have been presented previously; followed by parametric computational simulations to find the best combinations of seatbelt and airbag designs for different sizes of ATDs and military gear configurations involving both driver and passengers. Then 12 sled tests were conducted with the simulation-recommended restraint designs. The test results were further used to validate the models. Another series of computational simulations and 4 sled tests were performed to fine-tune the optimal restraint design solutions.

Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. It also affects the scheduling for preventive maintenance. Reliability usually degrades with time increasing therefore, the lifecycle cost due to more frequent failures which result in increased warranty costs, costly repairs and loss of market share. In a lifecycle cost based design, we must account for product quality and preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability. Quality is a measure of our confidence that the product conforms to specifications as it leaves the factory. For a repairable system, preventive maintenance is scheduled to avoid failures, unnecessary production loss and safety violations. This article proposes a methodology to obtain the optimal scheduling for preventive maintenance using time-dependent reliability principles.

The Powertrain Analysis and Computational Environment (PACE) is a powertrain simulation tool that provides an advanced behavioral modeling capability for the powertrain subsystems of conventional or hybrid-electric vehicles. Due to its origins in Argonne National Lab’s Autonomie, PACE benefits from the reputation of Autonomie as a validated modeling tool capable of simulating the advanced hardware and control features of modern vehicle powertrains. However, unlike Autonomie that is developed and executed in Mathwork’s MATLAB/Simulink environment, PACE is developed in C++ and is targeted for High-Performance Computing (HPC) platforms. Indeed, PACE is used as one of several actors within a comprehensive ground vehicle co-simulation system (CRES-GV MERCURY): during a single MERCURY run, thousands of concurrent PACE instances interact with other high-performance, distributed MERCURY components.

In this paper a Multi-Level System (MLS) optimization algorithm is presented and utilized for the multi-discipline design of a ground vehicle track. The MLS can guide the decision making process for designing a complex system where many alternatives and many mutually competing objectives and disciplines need to be considered and evaluated. Mathematical relationships between the design variables and the multiple discipline performance objectives are developed adaptively as the various design considerations are evaluated and as the design is being evolved. These relationships are employed for rewarding performance improvement during the decision making process by allocating more resources to the disciplines which exhibit the higher level of improvement. The track analysis demonstrates how a multi-discipline design approach can be pursued in ground vehicle applications.

Motion cueing algorithms can improve the perceived realism of a driving simulator, however, data on the effects on driver performance and simulator sickness remain scarce. Two novel motion cueing algorithms varying in concept and complexity were developed for a limited maneuvering workspace, hexapod/Stuart type motion platform. The RideCue algorithm uses a simple swing motion concept while OverTilt Track algorithm uses optimal pre-positioning to account for maneuver characteristics for coordinating tilt adjustments. An experiment was conducted on the US Army Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) Ride Motion Simulator (RMS) platform comparing the two novel motion cueing algorithms to a pre-existing algorithm and a no-motion condition.

The aim of this analysis was to model the effect of adding stiffening ribs in structural aluminum components by friction stir processing (FSP) Nano material into the aluminum matrix. These stiffening ribs could dampen, redirect, or otherwise alter the transmission of energy waves created from automotive, ballistic, or blast shocks to improve noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) and structural integrity (reduced joint stress) response. Since the ribs are not created by geometry changes they can be space efficient and deflect blast / ballistic energy better than geometry ribbing, resulting in a lighter weight solution. The blast and ballistic performance of different FSP rib patterns in AL 5182 and AL 7075 were simulated and compared to the performance of an equivalent weight of RHA plate FSP helps to increase localized strength and stiffness of the base metal, while achieving light weighting of the base metal.

This paper presents a computational framework for the physics-based simulation of light vehicles operating on discrete terrain. The focus is on characterizing through simulation the mobility of vehicles that weigh 1000 pounds or less, such as a reconnaissance robot. The terrain is considered to be deformable and is represented as a collection of bodies of spherical shape. The modeling stage relies on a novel formulation of the frictional contact problem that requires at each time step of the numerical simulation the solution of an optimization problem. The proposed computational framework, when run on ubiquitous Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) cards, allows the simulation of systems in which the terrain is represented by more than 0.5 million bodies leading to problems with more than one million degrees of freedom.