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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

Accurately predicting real-world vehicle energy consumption is essential for optimizing vehicle designs, enhancing energy efficiency, and developing effective energy management strategies. This paper presents a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning techniques and a comprehensive dataset of vehicle parameters and environmental factors to create precise energy consumption prediction models. The methodology involves recording real-world vehicle data using data loggers to extract information from the CAN bus systems for ICE and hybrid electric, as well as hydrogen and battery fuel cell vehicles. Data cleaning and cycle-based analysis are employed to process the dataset for accurate energy consumption prediction. This includes cycle detection and analysis using methods from statistics and signal processing, and then pattern recognition based on these metrics.

Currently, states that are out of compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards must, according to the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), develop and implement control strategies that demonstrate specific degrees of reduction in emissions-with the degree of reduction depending upon the severity of the problem. One tool that has been developed to aid regulators in both deciding an appropriate course of action and to demonstrate the desired reductions in mobile emissions is EPA's Mobile 5a emission estimation model. In our study, Mobile 5a has been used to examine the effects of regulatory strategies, as applied to the Northeast United States, on vehicle emissions under worst-case ozone-forming conditions.

Rare earths are a group of elements whose availability has been of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions and environmentally unsustainable mining practices. To evaluate the risks of rare earths availability to automakers, a first step is to determine raw material content and value in vehicles. This task is challenging because rare earth elements are used in small quantities, in a large number of components, and by suppliers far upstream in the supply chain. For this work, data on rare earth content reported by vehicle parts suppliers was assessed to estimate the rare earth usage of a typical conventional gasoline engine midsize sedan and a full hybrid sedan. Parts were selected from a large set of reported parts to build a hypothetical typical mid-size sedan. Estimates of rare earth content for vehicles with alternative powertrain and battery technologies were made based on the available parts' data.

This paper describes a post-race analysis of team KOMMIT EVT’s electric motorcycle data collected during the 2016 Pikes Peak International Hill Climb (PPIHC). The motorcycle consumed approximately 4 kWh of battery energy with an average and maximum speed of 107 km/h and 149 km/h, respectively. It was the second fastest electric motorcycle with a finishing time of 11:10.480. Data was logged of the motorcycle’s speed, acceleration, motor speed, power, currents, voltages, temperatures, throttle position, GPS position, rider’s heart rate and the ambient environment (air temperature, pressure and humidity). The data was used to understand the following factors that may have prevented a faster time: physical fitness of the rider, thermal limits of the motor and controller, available battery energy and the sprocket ratio between the motor and rear wheel.

A design framework based on the principles of lean manufacturing and axiomatic design was used as a guideline for designing an automotive component manufacturing system. A brief overview of this design decomposition is given to review its structure and usefulness. Examples are examined to demonstrate how this design framework was applied to the design of a gear manufacturing system. These examples demonstrate the impact that low-level design decisions can have on high-level system objectives and the need for a systems-thinking approach in manufacturing system design. Results are presented to show the estimated performance improvements resulting from the new system design.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

Enhanced information management techniques made available through emerging Information Technology platforms hold a promise of providing significant improvements in both the effectiveness and efficiency of developing complex products. Determining actual management implementations that deliver on this promise has often proven elusive. Work in conjunction with the Lean Aircraft Initiative at MIT has revealed a straight forward use of Information Technology that portends significant cost reductions. By integrating previously separate types of data involved in the process of product development, engineers and designers can make decisions that will significantly reduce ultimate costs. Since the results presented are not specific to particular technologies or manufacturing processes, the conclusions are broadly applicable.

Battery packs for Hybrids, Plug-in Hybrids, and Electric Vehicles are assembled from a system of modules (sheets) with a tight sheet metal casing around them. Each module consists of an array of individual cells which vary in the composition of electrodes and separator from one manufacturer to another. In this paper a general procedure is outlined on the development of a constitutive and computational model of a cylindrical cell. Particular emphasis is placed on correct prediction of initiation and propagation of a tearing fracture of the steel can. The computational model correctly predicts rupture of the steel can which could release aggressive chemicals, fumes, or spread the ignited fire to the neighboring cells. The initiation site of skin fracture depends on many factors such as the ductility of the casing material, constitutive behavior of the system of electrodes, and type of loading.

Thin sandwich sheets hold a promise for widespread use in automotive industry due to their good crash and formability properties. In this paper, thin stainless steel sandwich sheets with low-density core materials are investigated with regard to their performance in crashworthiness applications. The total thickness of the sandwich materials is about 1.2mm: 0.2mm thick facings and a 0.8mm thick sandwich core. Throughout the crushing of prismatic sandwich profiles, the sandwich facings are bent and stretched while the sandwich core is crushed under shear loading. Thus, a high shear crushing strength of the sandwich core material is beneficial for the overall energy absorption of the sandwich profile. It is shown theoretically that the weight specific shear crushing strength of hexagonal metallic honeycombs is higher than the one of fiber cores - irrespective of their relative density or microstructural geometry.

Concept of a new decoupled cylinder liner design for internal combustion (IC) engines is presented from the framework of axiomatic design to improve friction and wear characteristics. In the current design, the piston rings fail to satisfy their functional requirements at the two dead centers of the piston stroke where lubrication is poor. It is proposed that by using undulated cylindrical surfaces selectively along the cylinder liner, much of the existing friction and wear problems of IC engines may be solved. The main idea behind undulated surface is to trap wear particles at the piston-cylinder interface in order to minimize plowing, and thus maintain low friction even in areas where lubrication fails to be hydrodynamic. In dry sliding tests using a modified engine motored at low speeds, undulated cylinders operated for significantly longer time than smooth cylinders without catastrophic increase in friction.

The life of an automotive engine is often limited by the ability of its components to resist wear. Zinc dialkyldithiophosphate (ZDDP) is an engine oil additive that reduces wear in an engine by forming solid antiwear films at points of moving contact. The effects of this additive are fairly well understood, but there is little theory behind the kinetics of antiwear film formation and removal. This lack of dynamic modeling makes it difficult to predict the effects of wear at the design stage for an engine component or a lubricant formulation. The purpose of this discussion is to develop a framework for modeling the formation and evolution of ZDDP antiwear films based on the relevant chemical pathways and physical mechanisms at work.

The transportation sector in the United States is a major contributor to global energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission. To assess the future potentials of different technologies in addressing these two issues, we used a family of simulation programs to predict fuel consumption for passenger cars in 2020. The selected technology combinations that have good market potential and could be in mass production include: advanced gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles with automatically-shifting clutched transmissions, gasoline, diesel, and compressed natural gas hybrid electric vehicles with continuously variable transmissions, direct hydrogen, gasoline and methanol reformer fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles with direct ratio drive, and battery electric vehicle with direct ratio drive.

With the increasing complexity of automotive systems and the related increasing use of software in them, new approaches are needed to ensure safety. In these new types of automotive systems, safety and reliability are different and require different engineering approaches. Accidents are increasingly due to design errors and to dysfunctional interactions among components rather than component failure. In addition, safety must be engineered and built into the design from the beginning; it is not possible to effectively and affordably add safety devices onto a finished design. This paper describes the need for new approaches to automotive safety and describes an alternative to the traditional reliability-based approaches to safety engineering. The new approach is based on systems theory and views accidents in terms of lack of control or enforcement of the behavioral constraints required to ensure safety.

In this paper we investigate the optimal forming of conical cups of AL 2008-T4 through the use of real-time process control. We consider a flat, frictional binder the force of which can be determined precisely through closed-loop control. Initially the force is held constant throughout the forming of the cup, and various levels of force are tested experimentally and with numerical simulation. Excellent agreement between experiment and simulation is observed. The effects of binder force on cup shape, thickness distribution, failure mode and cup failure height are investigated, and an “optimal” constant binder force is determined. For this optimal case, the corresponding punch force is recorded as a function of punch displacement and is used in subsequent closed-loop control experiments. In addition to the constant force test, a trial variable binder force test was performed to extend the failure height beyond that obtained using the “optimal” constant force level.

With the recent advancement in sensing and controller technologies architecture design of an autonomous driving system becomes an important issue. Researchers have been developing different sensors and data processing technologies to solve the issues associated with fast processing, diverse weather, reliability, long distance recognition performance, etc. Necessary considerations of diverse traffic situations and safety factors of autonomous driving have also increased the complexity of embedded software as well as architecture of autonomous driving. In these circumstances, there are almost countless numbers of possible architecture designs. However, these design considerations have significant impacts on cost, controllability, and system reliability. Thus, it is crucial for the designers to make a challenging and critical design decision under several uncertainties during the conceptual design phase.

Higher compression ratio and turbocharging, with engine downsizing can enable significant gains in fuel economy but require engine operating conditions that cause engine knock under high load. Engine knock can be avoided by supplying higher-octane fuel under such high load conditions. This study builds on previous MIT papers investigating Octane-On-Demand (OOD) to enable a higher efficiency, higher-boost higher compression-ratio engine. The high-octane fuel for OOD can be obtained through On-Board-Separation (OBS) of alcohol blended gasoline. Fuel from the primary fuel tank filled with commercially available gasoline that contains 10% by volume ethanol (E10) is separated by an organic membrane pervaporation process that produces a 30 to 90% ethanol fuel blend for use when high octane is needed. In addition to previous work, this paper combines modeling of the OBS system with passenger car and medium-duty truck fuel consumption and octane requirements for various driving cycles.

Ground impact caused by road debris can result in very severe fire accident of Electric Vehicles (EV). In order to study the ground impact accidents, a Finite Element model of the battery pack structure is carefully set up according to the practical designs of EVs. Based on this model, the sequence of the deformation process is studied, and the contribution of each component is clarified. Subsequently, four designs, including three enhanced shield plates and one enhanced housing box, are investigated. Results show that the BRAS (Blast Resistant Adaptive Sandwich) shield plate is the most effective structure to decrease the deformation of the battery cells. Compared with the baseline case, which adopts a 6.35-mm-thick aluminum sheet as the shield plate, the BRAS can reduce the shortening of cells by more than 50%. Another type of sandwich structure, the NavTruss, can also improve the safety of battery pack, but not as effectively as the BRAS.

The US Air Force (USAF) has evolved a policy for the acquisition of fighter jet engines (FJE). In the 1970s and 1980s that policy placed a premium on FJE performance primarily measured by the metric: thrust/engine weight. In the 1990s, the USAF policy changed from an emphasis on performance to reduced life-cycle cost with a premium on sustainment. This paper reports the results of a study of how the USAF and Corporation Alpha (Alpha) have adapted their processes, practices, and policies to design, develop, manufacture, test, and sustain a family of FJEs. Each member of the family of FJEs is sequentially linked relative to insertion of technology designed to reduce sustainment costs. In addition to the technology linkages, the development of the family of FJEs selected for this case study is also tracked relative to US Department of Defense and USAF policy and industry design, build, and maintain processes, methods, and tools.

This paper reviews the relevant literature on the effects of sulfated ash, phosphorus, and sulfur on DPF, LNT, and SCR catalysts. Exhaust backpressure increase due to DPF ash accumulation, as well as the rate at which ash is consumed from the sump, were the most studied lubricant-derived DPF effects. Based on several studies, a doubling of backpressure can be estimated to occur within 270,000 to 490,000 km when using a 1.0% sulfated ash oil. Postmortem DPF analysis and exhaust gas measurements revealed that approximately 35% to 65% less ash was lost from the sump than was expected based on bulk oil consumption estimates. Despite significant effects from lubricant sulfur and phosphorus, loss of LNT NOX reduction efficiency is dominated by fuel sulfur effects. Phosphorus has been determined to have a mild poisoning effect on SCR catalysts. The extent of the effect that lubricant phosphorus and sulfur have on DOCs remains unclear, however, it appears to be minor.