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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

Transport policy research seeks to predict and substantially reduce the future transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption to prevent negative climate change impacts and protect the environment. However, making such predictions is made difficult due to the uncertainties associated with the anticipated developments of the technology and fuel situation in road transportation, which determine the total fuel use and emissions of the future light-duty vehicle fleet. These include uncertainties in the performance of future vehicles, fuels' emissions, availability of alternative fuels, demand, as well as market deployment of new technologies and fuels. This paper develops a methodology that quantifies the impact of uncertainty on the U.S. transport-related fuel use and emissions by introducing a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model that takes detailed technological and demand inputs.

This paper describes the use of a modified quasi-dimensional spark-ignition engine simulation code to predict the extent of cycle-to-cycle variations in combustion. The modifications primarily relate to the combustion model and include the following: 1. A flame kernel model was developed and implemented to avoid choosing the initial flame size and temperature arbitrarily. 2. Instead of the usual assumption of the flame being spherical, ellipsoidal flame shapes are permitted in the model when the gas velocity in the vicinity of the spark plug during kernel development is high. Changes in flame shape influence the flame front area and the interaction of the enflamed volume with the combustion chamber walls. 3. The flame center shifts due to convection by the gas flow in the cylinder. This influences the flame front area through the interaction between the enflamed volume and the combustion chamber walls. 4. Turbulence intensity is not uniform in cylinder, and varies cycle-to-cycle.

A methodology is presented with which aggregate emissions from the in-use automobile population can be calculated for any given calendar year. The data base needed for such a calculation is discussed, and areas in which further research is needed are pointed out. Results of a series of calculations are then presented showing the effect on aggregate emissions of various control strategies. The effects of an inspection/maintenance and retrofit program, different vehicle population growth rates, catalyst deterioration in use, and various schedules of new car emission standards for post-1975 vehicles are presented. It is shown that the rate at which old, higher-polluting vehicles are retired from the in-use vehicle population is the major factor in determining the rate at which aggregate emissions will decrease in the 1970s, with the precise level of post-1975 standards only becoming important in the 1980s.

Passenger cars in the United States continue to incorporate increasing levels of technology and features. However, deployment of technology requires substantial development and time in the automotive sector. Prior analyses indicate that deployment of technology in the automotive sector can be described by a logistic function. These analyses refer to maximum annual growth rates as high as 17% and with developmental times of 10-15 years. However, these technologies vary widely in complexity and function, and span decades in their implementation. This work applies regression with a logistic form to a wide variety of automotive features and technologies and, using secondary regression, identifies broader trends across categories and over time.

Gasoline/ethanol fuel blends have significant synergies with Spark Ignited Direct Injected (SI DI) engines. The higher latent heat of vaporization of ethanol increases charge cooling due to fuel evaporation and thus improves knock onset limits and efficiency. Realizing these benefits, however, can be challenging due to the finite time available for fuel evaporation and mixing. A methodology was developed to quantify how much in-cylinder charge cooling takes place in an engine for different gasoline/ethanol blends. Using a turbocharged SI engine with both Port Fuel Injection (PFI) and Direct Injection (DI), knock onset limits were measured for different intake air temperatures for both types of injection and five gasoline/ethanol blends. The superior charge cooling in DI compared to PFI for the same fuel resulted in pushing knock onset limits to higher in-cylinder maximum pressures. Knock onset is used as a diagnostic of charge cooling.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

This paper describes two types of computer models which have been developed to analyze the performance of both premixed-charge and direct-injection stratified-charge Wankel engines. The models are based on a thermodynamic analysis of the contents of the engine's chambers. In the first type of model, the rate of combustion is predicted from measured chamber pressure by use of a heat release analysis. The analysis includes heat transfer to the chamber walls, work transfer to the rotor, enthalpy loss due to flows into crevices and due to leakage flows into adjacent chambers, and enthalpy gain due to fuel injection. The second type of computer model may be used to predict the chamber pressure during a complete engine cycle. From the predicted chamber pressure, the overall engine performance parameters are calculated. The rate of fuel burning as an algebraic function of crank angle is specified.

A computer simulation of the turbocharged turbocompounded direct-injection diesel engine system has been developed in order to study the performance characteristics of the total system as major design parameters and materials are varied. Quasi-steady flow models of the compressor, turbines, manifolds, intercooler, and ducting are coupled with a multi-cylinder reciprocator diesel model where each cylinder undergoes the same thermodynamic cycle. Appropriate thermal loading models relate the heat flow through critical system components to material properties and design details. This paper describes the basic system models and their calibration and validation against available experimental engine test data. The use of the model is illustrated by predicting the performance gains and the component design trade-offs associated with a partially insulated engine achieving a 40 percent reduction in heat loss over a baseline cooled engine.

A computer simulation of the four-stroke spark-ignition engine cycle has been developed for studies of the effects of variations in engine design and operating parameters on engine performance, efficiency and NO emissions. The simulation computes the flows into and out of the engine, calculates the changes in thermodynamic properties and composition of the unburned and burned gas mixtures within the cylinder through the engine cycle due to work, heat and mass transfers, and follows the kinetics of NO formation and decomposition in the burned gas. The combustion process is specified as an input to the program through use of a normalized rate of mass burning profile. From this information, the simulation computes engine power, fuel consumption and NO emissions. Predictions made with the simulation have been compared with data from a single-cylinder CFR engine over a range of equivalence ratios, spark-timings and compression ratios.

In this study, a set of performance and emissions data, obtained from a single-cylinder divided-chamber automotive diesel engine over the normal engine operating range, is described and analyzed. The data are used to evaluate a computer simulation of the engine's operating cycle, described in a companion paper, which predicts the properties of gases inside the engine cylinder throughout the cycle, and engine efficiency, power and NOx emissions. Satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements is obtained over most of the engine's operating range. The characteristics of the experimental pre- and main-chamber pressure versus crank angle data are then examined in detail. A heat release analysis appropriate for divided-chamber diesel engines is developed and used to obtain heat release rate profiles through the combustion process.

In this research, an optical system for the detection of the flame propagation under the non-knocking and knocking conditions is developed and applied to a mass produced four cylinder SI engine. The normal flames are measured and analyzed under the steady state operating conditions at various engine speeds. For knocking cycles, the flame front propagations before and after knock occurrence are simultaneously taken with cylinder pressure data. In non-knocking and knocking cycles, flame propagation shows cycle-by-cycle variations, which are quite severe especially in the knocking cycles. The normal flame propagations are analyzed at various engine speeds, and show that the flame front on the exhaust valve side becomes faster as the engine speed increases. According to the statistical analysis, knock occurence location and flame propagation process after knock can be categorized into five different types.

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of the transient flow in the intake system of a spark ignition engine is compared to experimental data. The calculation was performed for a single cylinder version of a pre-1995 Ford two-valve production engine, while experiments were carried out on a single cylinder Ricardo Mark 3 research engine with similar overall geometric parameters. While the two engines have somewhat different geometries, this was not considered to be a significant problem for our study of flow features. Both set-ups employed gaseous fuel. The calculation was performed using the commercially available Star-CD code incorporating the complete intake manifold runner and cylinder into the mesh. Cylinder pressures were in good agreement with experiment indicating that wave dynamics were well captured. Comparison was also made to the measured instantaneous gas temperatures along the intake system.

This vehicle simulation study estimates the fuel economy benefits of an HCCI engine system and assesses the NOx, HC and CO aftertreatment performance required for compliance with emissions regulations on U.S. and European regulatory driving cycles. The four driving cycles considered are the New European Driving Cycle, EPA City Driving Cycle, EPA Highway Driving Cycle, and US06 Driving Cycle. For each driving cycle, the following influences on vehicle fuel economy were examined: power-to-weight ratio, HCCI combustion mode operating range, driving cycle characteristics, requirements for transitions out of HCCI mode when engine speeds and loads are within the HCCI operating range, fuel consumption and emissions penalties for transitions into and out of HCCI mode, aftertreatment system performance and tailpipe emissions regulations.

A combined experimental and analytical approach was followed in this work to study stress distributions and causes of failure in diesel cylinder heads under steady-state and transient operation. Experimental studies were conducted first to measure temperatures, heat fluxes and stresses under a series of steady-state operating conditions. Furthermore, by placing high temperature strain gages within the thermal penetration depth of the cylinder head, the effect of thermal shock loading under rapid transients was studied. A comparison of our steady-state and transient measurements suggests that the steady-state temperature gradients and the level of temperatures are the primary causes of thermal fatigue in cast-iron cylinder heads. Subsequently, a finite element analysis was conducted to predict the detailed steady-state temperature and stress distributions within the cylinder head. A comparison of the predicted steady-state temperatures and stresses compared well with our measurements.

A thermodynamic based cycle simulation which uses a thermal boundary layer, either, a fully mixed or layered adiabatic core, and a crevice combustion inefficiency routine has been used to explore the sensitivity of NO concentration predictions to critical physical modeling assumptions. An experimental database, which included measurements of residual gas fraction, was obtained from a 2.0 liter Nissan engine while firing on propane. A model calibration methodology was developed to ensure accurate predictions of in-cylinder pressure and burned gas temperature. Comparisons with experimental NO data then showed that accounting for temperature stratification during combustion with a layered adiabatic core and including a crevice/combustion inefficiency routine, improved the match of modeling predictions to data, in comparison to a fully mixed adiabatic core.

A model has been developed which predicts engine-out hydrocarbon (HC) emissions for spark-ignition engines. The model consists of a set of scaling laws that describe the individual processes that contribute to HC emissions. The model inputs are the critical engine design and operating variables. This set of individual process scaling relations was then calibrated using production spark-ignition engine data at a fixed light-load operating point. The data base consisted of engine-out HC emissions from two-valve and four-valve engine designs with variations in spark timing, valve timing, coolant temperature, crevice volume, and EGR, for five different engines. The model was calibrated separately for the three different engines to accommodate differences in engine design details and to determine the relative magnitudes of each of the major sources. A good fit to this database was obtained.

The oil control ring is the most critical component for oil consumption and friction from the piston system in internal combustion engines. Three-piece oil control rings are widely used in Spark Ignition (SI) engines. However, the dynamics and lubrication of three piece oil control rings have not been thoroughly studied from the theoretical point of view. In this work, a model was developed to predict side sealing, bore sealing, friction, and asperity contact between rails and groove as well as between rails and the liner in a Three Piece Oil Control Ring (TPOCR). The model couples the axial and twist dynamics of the two rails of TPOCR and the lubrication between two rails and the cylinder bore. Detailed rail/groove and rail/liner interactions were considered. The pressure distribution from oil squeezing and asperity contact between the flanks of the rails and the groove were both considered for rail/groove interaction.

An Engine Simulation Model was used to study the effect of in-cylinder swirl level on turbulence intensity and burn rate while holding the inducted kinetic energy constant. Experimental measurements of burn rate for three different swirl levels were obtained and compared with model predictions. The turbulence model used previously did not include wall shear effects and showed little enhancement of turbulence due to swirl, causing small changes in predicted burn rate when the swirl level was changed. An improved turbulence model is proposed which includes production of turbulence due to wall shear effects. Turbulence intensity predictions from the improved model resulted in excellent agreement between the measured and predicted burn rates as swirl level was changed. In addition, the model was used to predict the effect of swirl levels on ISFC. Results showed that ISFC changes were overall small for the range of swirl levels considered.

In order to understand better the operation of spark-ignition engines during the warm-up period, a computer model had been developed which simulates the thermal processes of the engine. This model is based on lumped thermal capacitance methods for the major engine components, as well as the exhaust system. Coolant and oil flows, and their respective heat transfer rates are modeled, as well as friction heat generation relations. Piston-liner heat transfer is calculated based on a thermal resistance method, which includes the effects of piston and ring material and design, oil film thickness, and piston-liner crevice. Piston/liner crevice changes are calculated based on thermal expansion rates and are used in conjunction with a crevice-region unburned hydrocarbon model to predict the contribution to emissions from this source.