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This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

Transport policy research seeks to predict and substantially reduce the future transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption to prevent negative climate change impacts and protect the environment. However, making such predictions is made difficult due to the uncertainties associated with the anticipated developments of the technology and fuel situation in road transportation, which determine the total fuel use and emissions of the future light-duty vehicle fleet. These include uncertainties in the performance of future vehicles, fuels' emissions, availability of alternative fuels, demand, as well as market deployment of new technologies and fuels. This paper develops a methodology that quantifies the impact of uncertainty on the U.S. transport-related fuel use and emissions by introducing a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model that takes detailed technological and demand inputs.

This paper describes the use of a modified quasi-dimensional spark-ignition engine simulation code to predict the extent of cycle-to-cycle variations in combustion. The modifications primarily relate to the combustion model and include the following: 1. A flame kernel model was developed and implemented to avoid choosing the initial flame size and temperature arbitrarily. 2. Instead of the usual assumption of the flame being spherical, ellipsoidal flame shapes are permitted in the model when the gas velocity in the vicinity of the spark plug during kernel development is high. Changes in flame shape influence the flame front area and the interaction of the enflamed volume with the combustion chamber walls. 3. The flame center shifts due to convection by the gas flow in the cylinder. This influences the flame front area through the interaction between the enflamed volume and the combustion chamber walls. 4. Turbulence intensity is not uniform in cylinder, and varies cycle-to-cycle.

A methodology is presented with which aggregate emissions from the in-use automobile population can be calculated for any given calendar year. The data base needed for such a calculation is discussed, and areas in which further research is needed are pointed out. Results of a series of calculations are then presented showing the effect on aggregate emissions of various control strategies. The effects of an inspection/maintenance and retrofit program, different vehicle population growth rates, catalyst deterioration in use, and various schedules of new car emission standards for post-1975 vehicles are presented. It is shown that the rate at which old, higher-polluting vehicles are retired from the in-use vehicle population is the major factor in determining the rate at which aggregate emissions will decrease in the 1970s, with the precise level of post-1975 standards only becoming important in the 1980s.

Passenger cars in the United States continue to incorporate increasing levels of technology and features. However, deployment of technology requires substantial development and time in the automotive sector. Prior analyses indicate that deployment of technology in the automotive sector can be described by a logistic function. These analyses refer to maximum annual growth rates as high as 17% and with developmental times of 10-15 years. However, these technologies vary widely in complexity and function, and span decades in their implementation. This work applies regression with a logistic form to a wide variety of automotive features and technologies and, using secondary regression, identifies broader trends across categories and over time.

Gasoline/ethanol fuel blends have significant synergies with Spark Ignited Direct Injected (SI DI) engines. The higher latent heat of vaporization of ethanol increases charge cooling due to fuel evaporation and thus improves knock onset limits and efficiency. Realizing these benefits, however, can be challenging due to the finite time available for fuel evaporation and mixing. A methodology was developed to quantify how much in-cylinder charge cooling takes place in an engine for different gasoline/ethanol blends. Using a turbocharged SI engine with both Port Fuel Injection (PFI) and Direct Injection (DI), knock onset limits were measured for different intake air temperatures for both types of injection and five gasoline/ethanol blends. The superior charge cooling in DI compared to PFI for the same fuel resulted in pushing knock onset limits to higher in-cylinder maximum pressures. Knock onset is used as a diagnostic of charge cooling.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

This paper describes two types of computer models which have been developed to analyze the performance of both premixed-charge and direct-injection stratified-charge Wankel engines. The models are based on a thermodynamic analysis of the contents of the engine's chambers. In the first type of model, the rate of combustion is predicted from measured chamber pressure by use of a heat release analysis. The analysis includes heat transfer to the chamber walls, work transfer to the rotor, enthalpy loss due to flows into crevices and due to leakage flows into adjacent chambers, and enthalpy gain due to fuel injection. The second type of computer model may be used to predict the chamber pressure during a complete engine cycle. From the predicted chamber pressure, the overall engine performance parameters are calculated. The rate of fuel burning as an algebraic function of crank angle is specified.

A computer simulation of the turbocharged turbocompounded direct-injection diesel engine system has been developed in order to study the performance characteristics of the total system as major design parameters and materials are varied. Quasi-steady flow models of the compressor, turbines, manifolds, intercooler, and ducting are coupled with a multi-cylinder reciprocator diesel model where each cylinder undergoes the same thermodynamic cycle. Appropriate thermal loading models relate the heat flow through critical system components to material properties and design details. This paper describes the basic system models and their calibration and validation against available experimental engine test data. The use of the model is illustrated by predicting the performance gains and the component design trade-offs associated with a partially insulated engine achieving a 40 percent reduction in heat loss over a baseline cooled engine.

A computer simulation of the four-stroke spark-ignition engine cycle has been developed for studies of the effects of variations in engine design and operating parameters on engine performance, efficiency and NO emissions. The simulation computes the flows into and out of the engine, calculates the changes in thermodynamic properties and composition of the unburned and burned gas mixtures within the cylinder through the engine cycle due to work, heat and mass transfers, and follows the kinetics of NO formation and decomposition in the burned gas. The combustion process is specified as an input to the program through use of a normalized rate of mass burning profile. From this information, the simulation computes engine power, fuel consumption and NO emissions. Predictions made with the simulation have been compared with data from a single-cylinder CFR engine over a range of equivalence ratios, spark-timings and compression ratios.

In this study, a set of performance and emissions data, obtained from a single-cylinder divided-chamber automotive diesel engine over the normal engine operating range, is described and analyzed. The data are used to evaluate a computer simulation of the engine's operating cycle, described in a companion paper, which predicts the properties of gases inside the engine cylinder throughout the cycle, and engine efficiency, power and NOx emissions. Satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements is obtained over most of the engine's operating range. The characteristics of the experimental pre- and main-chamber pressure versus crank angle data are then examined in detail. A heat release analysis appropriate for divided-chamber diesel engines is developed and used to obtain heat release rate profiles through the combustion process.

An experimental study was performed to develop a more fundamental understanding of the effects of secondary air injection (SAI) on exhaust gas emissions and catalyst light-off characteristics during cold start of a modern SI engine. The effects of engine operating parameters and various secondary air injection strategies such as spark retardation, fuel enrichment, secondary air injection location and air flow rate were investigated to understand the mixing, heat loss, and thermal and catalytic oxidation processes associated with SAI. Time-resolved HC, CO and CO₂ concentrations were tracked from the cylinder exit to the catalytic converter outlet and converted to time-resolved mass emissions by applying an instantaneous exhaust mass flow rate model. A phenomenological model of exhaust heat transfer combined with the gas composition analysis was also developed to define the thermal and chemical energy state of the exhaust gas with SAI.

A single-zone burn-rate analysis based on measured cylinder pressure data proposed by Gatowski et al. in 1984 was evaluated over the full load and speed range of a spark-ignition engine. The analysis, which determines the fuel mass burning rate based on the First Law of Thermodynamics, includes sub-models for the effects of residual fraction, heat transfer, and crevices. Each of these sub-models was assessed and calibrated. Cylinder pressure data over the full engine operating range obtained from two different engines were used to examine the robustness of the analysis. The sensitivity of predictions to the parameters wall temperature, heat transfer model coefficients and exponent, swirl ratio, motoring polytropic constant, in-cylinder mass, and to uncertainty in pressure data was evaluated.

A model for predicting the performance and emissions characteristics of Wankel engines has been developed and tested. Each chamber is treated as an open thermodynamic system and the effects of turbulent flame propagation, quench layer formation, gas motion, heat transfer and seal leakage are included. The experimental tests were carried out on a Toyo Kogyo 12B engine under both motoring and firing conditions and values for the effective seal leakage area and turbulent heat transfer coefficient were deduced. The agreement between the predicted and measured performances was reasonable. Parametric studies of the effects of reductions in seal leakage and heat transfer were carried out and the results are presented.

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of the transient flow in the intake system of a spark ignition engine is compared to experimental data. The calculation was performed for a single cylinder version of a pre-1995 Ford two-valve production engine, while experiments were carried out on a single cylinder Ricardo Mark 3 research engine with similar overall geometric parameters. While the two engines have somewhat different geometries, this was not considered to be a significant problem for our study of flow features. Both set-ups employed gaseous fuel. The calculation was performed using the commercially available Star-CD code incorporating the complete intake manifold runner and cylinder into the mesh. Cylinder pressures were in good agreement with experiment indicating that wave dynamics were well captured. Comparison was also made to the measured instantaneous gas temperatures along the intake system.

This vehicle simulation study estimates the fuel economy benefits of an HCCI engine system and assesses the NOx, HC and CO aftertreatment performance required for compliance with emissions regulations on U.S. and European regulatory driving cycles. The four driving cycles considered are the New European Driving Cycle, EPA City Driving Cycle, EPA Highway Driving Cycle, and US06 Driving Cycle. For each driving cycle, the following influences on vehicle fuel economy were examined: power-to-weight ratio, HCCI combustion mode operating range, driving cycle characteristics, requirements for transitions out of HCCI mode when engine speeds and loads are within the HCCI operating range, fuel consumption and emissions penalties for transitions into and out of HCCI mode, aftertreatment system performance and tailpipe emissions regulations.

In analyzing the processes inside the cylinder of an internal combustion engine, the principal diagnostic at the experimenter's disposal is a measured time history of the cylinder pressure. This paper develops, tests, and applies a heat release analysis procedure that maintains simplicity while including the effects of heat transfer, crevice flows and fuel injection. The heat release model uses a one zone description of the cylinder contents with thermodynamic properties represented by a linear approximation for γ(T). Applications of the analysis to a single-cylinder spark-ignition engine, a special square cross-section visualization spark-ignition engine, and a direct-injection stratified charge engine are presented.

Time-resolved heat flux and gas temperature measurements in the intake port of a spark ignition engine are presented. Experiments were pursued for motored, propane fired, and liquid fuel operation. Heat transfer coefficients were built from the dry data. Also, heat transfer rates in the port and off the back of the intake valve were integrated over the main flow phases. For a typical low-load propane-fired operating condition, heat transfer in the port caused a mean intake air temperature increase of approximately 10°C. The main different intake flow phases, induction or forward flow, displacement backflow, and valve overlap backflow, contributed approximately 10°C, 3°C, and negative 3°C, respectively. These mixture temperature changes are expected to be also applicable for liquid fuel injected cases. While the heat flux instrumentation was primarily intended for dry operation of the engine, liquid fuel experiments were also pursued.

A conventional spark plug and a spark plug with smaller electrodes were studied in M.I.T.'s transparent square piston engine. The purpose was to learn more about how the electrode geometry affects the heat losses to the electrodes and the electrical performance of the ignition system, and how this affects the flame development process in an engine. A schlieren system which provides two orthogonal views of the developing flame was used to define the initial flame growth process, for as many as 100 consecutive cycles. Voltage and current waveforms were recorded to characterize the spark discharge, and cylinder pressure data were used to characterize the engine performance. The spark plug with the smaller electrodes was shown to reduce the heat losses to the electrodes, and thereby extend the stable operating regime of the engine. At conditions close to the stable operating limit, cycle-by-cycle variations in heat losses cause significant cyclic variations in flame development.

The flow and heat transfer phenomena in the intake port of a spark ignition engine with port fuel injection play a significant role in the mixture preparation process, especially at part load. The backflow of the hot burned gas from the cylinder into the intake port when the intake valve is opened breaks up any liquid film around the inlet valve, influences gas and wall temperatures, and has a major effect on the fuel vaporization process. The backflow of in-cylinder mixture with its residual component during the compression stroke prior to inlet valve closing fills part of the port with gas at higher than fresh mixture temperature. To quantify these phenomena, time-resolved measurements of the hydrocarbon concentration profile along the center-line of the intake port were made with a fast-response flame ionization detector, and of the gas temperature with a fine wire resistance thermometer, in a single-cylinder engine running with premixed propane/air mixture.