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Passenger cars in the United States continue to incorporate increasing levels of technology and features. However, deployment of technology requires substantial development and time in the automotive sector. Prior analyses indicate that deployment of technology in the automotive sector can be described by a logistic function. These analyses refer to maximum annual growth rates as high as 17% and with developmental times of 10-15 years. However, these technologies vary widely in complexity and function, and span decades in their implementation. This work applies regression with a logistic form to a wide variety of automotive features and technologies and, using secondary regression, identifies broader trends across categories and over time.

Transport policy research seeks to predict and substantially reduce the future transport-related greenhouse gas emissions and fuel consumption to prevent negative climate change impacts and protect the environment. However, making such predictions is made difficult due to the uncertainties associated with the anticipated developments of the technology and fuel situation in road transportation, which determine the total fuel use and emissions of the future light-duty vehicle fleet. These include uncertainties in the performance of future vehicles, fuels' emissions, availability of alternative fuels, demand, as well as market deployment of new technologies and fuels. This paper develops a methodology that quantifies the impact of uncertainty on the U.S. transport-related fuel use and emissions by introducing a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model that takes detailed technological and demand inputs.

Recent studies have shown that for a given RON, fuels with a higher sensitivity (RON-MON) tend to have better antiknock performance at most knock-limited conditions in modern engines. The underlying chemistry behind fuel sensitivity was therefore investigated to understand why this trend occurs. Chemical kinetic models were used to study fuels of varying sensitivities; in particular their autoignition delay times and chemical intermediates were compared. As is well known, non-sensitive fuels tend to be paraffins, while the higher sensitivity fuels tend to be olefins, aromatics, diolefins, napthenes, and alcohols. A more exact relationship between sensitivity and the fuel's chemical structure was not found to be apparent. High sensitivity fuels can have vastly different chemical structures. The results showed that the autoignition delay time (τ) behaved differently at different temperatures. At temperatures below 775 K and above 900 K, τ has a strong temperature dependence.

A prior study (Chon and Heywood, [1]) examined how the design and performance of spark-ignition engines evolved in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper carries out a similar analysis of trends in basic engine design and performance characteristics over the past decade. Available databases on engine specifications in the U.S., Europe, and Japan were used as the sources of information. Parameters analyzed were maximum torque, power, and speed; number of cylinders and engine configuration, cylinder displacement, bore, stroke, compression ratio; valvetrain configuration, number of valves and their control; port or direct fuel injection; naturally-aspirated or turbocharged engine concepts; spark-ignition and diesel engines. Design features are correlated with these engine’s performance parameters, normalized by engine and cylinder displacement.

This vehicle simulation study estimates the fuel economy benefits of an HCCI engine system and assesses the NOx, HC and CO aftertreatment performance required for compliance with emissions regulations on U.S. and European regulatory driving cycles. The four driving cycles considered are the New European Driving Cycle, EPA City Driving Cycle, EPA Highway Driving Cycle, and US06 Driving Cycle. For each driving cycle, the following influences on vehicle fuel economy were examined: power-to-weight ratio, HCCI combustion mode operating range, driving cycle characteristics, requirements for transitions out of HCCI mode when engine speeds and loads are within the HCCI operating range, fuel consumption and emissions penalties for transitions into and out of HCCI mode, aftertreatment system performance and tailpipe emissions regulations.

This paper evaluates how the fuel consumption of the average new U.S. passenger car will be penalized if engine and vehicle improvements continue to be focused on developing bigger, heavier and more powerful automobiles. We quantify a parameter called the Emphasis on Reducing Fuel Consumption (ERFC) and find that there has been little focus on improving fuel consumption in the U.S. over the past twenty years. In contrast, Europe has seen significantly higher ERFC. By raising the ERFC over the next few decades, we can reduce the average U.S. new car's fuel consumption by up to some 40 percent and cut the light-duty vehicle fleet's fuel use by about a quarter. Achieving substantial fuel use reduction will remain a major challenge if automobile size, weight and power continue to dominate.

This paper quantifies the potential of electric propulsion systems to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2030 U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The propulsion systems under consideration include gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), fuel-cell hybrid vehicles (FCVs), and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). The performance and cost of key enabling technologies were extrapolated over a 25-30 year time horizon. These results were integrated with software simulations to model vehicle performance and tank-to-wheel energy consumption. Well-to-wheel energy and GHG emissions of future vehicle technologies were estimated by integrating the vehicle technology evaluation with assessments of different fuel pathways. The results show that, if vehicle size and performance remain constant at present-day levels, these electric propulsion systems can reduce or eliminate the transport sector's reliance on petroleum.

This paper assesses the potential improvement of automotive powertrain technologies 25 years into the future. The powertrain types assessed include naturally-aspirated gasoline engines, turbocharged gasoline engines, diesel engines, gasoline-electric hybrids, and various advanced transmissions. Advancements in aerodynamics, vehicle weight reduction and tire rolling friction are also taken into account. The objective of the comparison is the potential of anticipated improvements in these powertrain technologies for reducing petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at the same level of performance as current vehicles in the U.S.A. The fuel consumption and performance of future vehicles was estimated using a combination of scaling laws and detailed vehicle simulations. The results indicate that there is significant potential for reduction of fuel consumption for all the powertrains examined.

Experiments were conducted to determine the effects of substantial spark retard on combustion, hydrocarbon (HC) emissions, and exhaust temperature, under cold engine conditions. A single-cylinder research engine was operated at 20° C fluid temperatures for various spark timings and relative air/fuel ratios. Combustion stability was observed to decrease as the phasing of the 50% mass fraction burned (MFB) occurred later in the expansion stroke. A thermodynamic burn rate analysis indicated combustion was complete at exhaust valve opening with -20° before top dead center (BTDC) spark timings. Chemical and thermal energy of the exhaust gas was tracked from cylinder-exit to the exhaust runner. Time-resolved HC concentrations measured in the port and runner were mass weighted to obtain an exhaust HC mass flow rate. Results were compared to time averaged well downstream HC levels.

Engine oil consumption is recognized to be a significant source of pollutant emissions. Unburned or partially burned oil in the exhaust gases contributes directly to hydrocarbon and particulate emissions. In addition, chemical compounds present in oil additives poison catalytic converters and reduce their conversion efficiency. Oil consumption can increase significantly during critical non-steady operating conditions. This study analyzes the oil consumption behavior during ramp transients in load by combining oil consumption measurements, in-cylinder measurements, and computer-based modeling. A sulfur based oil consumption method was used to measure real-time oil consumption during ramp transients in load at constant speed in a production spark ignition engine. Additionally in-cylinder liquid oil behavior along the piston was studied using a one-point Laser-Induced-Fluorescence (LIF) technique.

Experiments to study the effects of oxygenated fuels on emissions and combustion were performed in a single-cylinder direct-injection (DI) diesel engine. A matrix of oxygen containing fuels assessed the impact of weight percent oxygen content, oxygenate chemical structure, and oxygenate volatility on emissions. Several oxygenated chemicals were blended with an ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel and evaluated at an equivalent energy release and combustion phasing. Additional experiments investigated the effectiveness of oxygenated fuels at a different engine load, a matched fuel/air equivalence ratio, and blended with a diesel fuel from the Fischer-Tropsch process. Interactions between emissions and critical engine operating parameters were also quantified. A scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) was used to evaluate particle size distributions, in addition to particulate matter (PM) filter and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) measurements.

This study examines the scaling between engine performance, engine configuration, and engine size and geometry, for modern spark-ignition engines. It focuses especially on design features that impact engine breathing. We also analyze historical trends to illustrate how changes in technology have improved engine performance. Different geometric parameters such as cylinder displacement, piston area, number of cylinders, number of valves per cylinder, bore to stroke ratio, and compression ratio, in appropriate combinations, are correlated to engine performance parameters, namely maximum torque, power and brake mean effective pressure, to determine the relationships or scaling laws that best fit the data. Engine specifications from 1999 model year vehicles sold in the United States were compiled into a database and separated into two-, three-, and four-valves-per-cylinder engine categories.

The oil control ring is the most critical component for oil consumption and friction from the piston system in internal combustion engines. Three-piece oil control rings are widely used in Spark Ignition (SI) engines. However, the dynamics and lubrication of three piece oil control rings have not been thoroughly studied from the theoretical point of view. In this work, a model was developed to predict side sealing, bore sealing, friction, and asperity contact between rails and groove as well as between rails and the liner in a Three Piece Oil Control Ring (TPOCR). The model couples the axial and twist dynamics of the two rails of TPOCR and the lubrication between two rails and the cylinder bore. Detailed rail/groove and rail/liner interactions were considered. The pressure distribution from oil squeezing and asperity contact between the flanks of the rails and the groove were both considered for rail/groove interaction.

The wear patterns of the rings and grooves of a diesel engine were analyzed by using a ring dynamics/gas flow model and a ring-pack oil film thickness model. The analysis focused primarily on the contact pressure distribution on the ring sides and grooves as well as on the contact location on the ring running surfaces. Analysis was performed for both new and worn ring/groove profiles. Calculated results are consistent with the measured wear patterns. The effects of groove tilt and static twist on the development of wear patterns on the ring sides, grooves, and ring running surfaces were studied. Ring flutter was observed from the calculation and its effect on oil transport was discussed. Up-scraping of the top ring was studied by considering ring dynamic twist and piston tilt. This work shows that the models used have potential for providing practical guidance to optimizing the ring pack and ring grooves to control wear and reduce oil consumption.

Measurements were made of exhaust histories of the following species: unburned hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, oxygen, and nitric oxide (NO). The measurements show that the exhaust flow can be divided into two distinct phases: a leading gas low in HC and high in NO followed by a trailing gas high in HC and low in NO. Calculations of time resolved equivalence ratio throughout the exhaust process show no evidence of a stratified combustion. The exhaust mass flow rate is time resolved by forcing the flow to be locally quasi-steady at an orifice placed in the exhaust pipe. The results with the quasi-steady assumption are shown to be consistent with the measurements. Predictions are made of time resolved mass flow rate which compare favorably to the experimental data base. The composition and flow histories provide sufficient information to calculate the time resolved flow rates of the individual species measured.

A methodology is presented with which aggregate emissions from the in-use automobile population can be calculated for any given calendar year. The data base needed for such a calculation is discussed, and areas in which further research is needed are pointed out. Results of a series of calculations are then presented showing the effect on aggregate emissions of various control strategies. The effects of an inspection/maintenance and retrofit program, different vehicle population growth rates, catalyst deterioration in use, and various schedules of new car emission standards for post-1975 vehicles are presented. It is shown that the rate at which old, higher-polluting vehicles are retired from the in-use vehicle population is the major factor in determining the rate at which aggregate emissions will decrease in the 1970s, with the precise level of post-1975 standards only becoming important in the 1980s.