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In the process of conducting a reliability analysis of a system, quite often the population of interest is not homogenous; consisting of sub-populations which arise as production operations are adjusted, component suppliers are changed, etc. While these sub-populations are each unique in many ways, they also have much in common. It is also common for data to be available from a variety of different test regimes, e.g. environmental testing and fleet maintenance observations. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an organized, objective means of estimating the reliability of the individual systems, the sub-population reliability as well as the reliability of the entire population. This paper provides an introduction to a Bayesian approach that can be extended for more complicated situations.

Modeling plume interaction and collapse for direct-injection gasoline sprays is important because of its impact on fuel-air mixing and engine performance. Nevertheless, the aerodynamic interaction between plumes and the complicated two-phase coupling of the evaporating spray has shown to be notoriously difficult to predict. With the availability of high-speed (100 kHz) Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) experimental data, we compare velocity field predictions between plumes to observe the full temporal evolution leading up to plume merging and complete spray collapse. The target “Spray G” operating conditions of the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) is the focus of the work, including parametric variations in ambient gas temperature. We apply both LES and RANS spray models in different CFD platforms, outlining features of the spray that are most critical to model in order to predict the correct aerodynamics and fuel-air mixing.

This paper discusses the treatment of uncertainties corresponding to relatively few samples of random-variable quantities. The importance of this topic extends beyond experimental data uncertainty to situations involving uncertainty in model calibration, validation, and prediction. With very sparse samples it is not practical to have a goal of accurately estimating the underlying variability distribution (probability density function, PDF). Rather, a pragmatic goal is that the uncertainty representation should be conservative so as to bound a desired percentage of the actual PDF, say 95% included probability, with reasonable reliability. A second, opposing objective is that the representation not be overly conservative; that it minimally over-estimate the random-variable range corresponding to the desired percentage of the actual PDF. The presence of the two opposing objectives makes the sparse-data uncertainty representation problem an interesting and difficult one.

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized loss management model to account for the usage of thermodynamic work potential in vehicles of any type. The key to accomplishing this is creation of a differential representation for vehicle loss as a function of operating condition. This differential model is then integrated through time to obtain an analytical estimate for total usage (and loss) of work potential consumed by each loss mechanism present during vehicle operation. The end result of this analysis is a better understanding of how the work potential initially present in the fuel, batteries, etc. is partitioned amongst all losses relevant to the vehicle's operation. The loss partitioning estimated from this loss management model can be used in conjunction with cost accounting systems to gain a better understanding of underlying drivers on vehicle manufacturing and operating costs.

System effectiveness has become the prime metric for the evaluation of military aircraft. As such, it is the designer's goal to maximize system effectiveness. Industry documents indicate that all future military aircraft will incorporate signature reduction as an attempt to improve system effectiveness. Today's operating environments demand low observable aircraft which are able to reliably eliminate valuable, time critical targets. Thus, it is desirable to be able to evaluate the signatures of a vehicle, as well as the influence of signatures on the systems effectiveness of a vehicle. Previous studies have shown that shaping of the vehicle is one of the most important contributors to radar cross section and must be considered from the very beginning of the design process. This research strives to meet these needs by developing a parametric geometry radar cross section prediction tool.

Several approaches to robust design have been proposed in the past. Only few acknowledged the paradigm shift from performance based design to design for cost. The incorporation of economics in the design process, however, makes a probabilistic approach to design necessary, due to the inherent ambiguity of assumptions and requirements as well as the operating environment of future aircraft. The approach previously proposed by the authors, linking Response Surface Methodology with Monte Carlo Simulations, has revealed itself to be cumbersome and at times impractical for multi-constraint, multi-objective problems. In addition, prediction accuracy problems were observed for certain scenarios that could not easily be resolved. Hence, this paper proposes an alternate approach to probabilistic design, which is based on a Fast Probability Integration technique.

The 4th Workshop of the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) was held September 5-6, 2015 in Kyoto, Japan. This manuscript presents a summary of the progress in experiments and modeling among ECN contributors leading to a better understanding of soot formation under the ECN “Spray A” configuration and some parametric variants. Relevant published and unpublished work from prior ECN workshops is reviewed. Experiments measuring soot particle size and morphology, soot volume fraction (fv), and transient soot mass have been conducted at various international institutions providing target data for improvements to computational models. Multiple modeling contributions using both the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) Equations approach and the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) approach have been submitted. Among these, various chemical mechanisms, soot models, and turbulence-chemistry interaction (TCI) methodologies have been considered.

This work is a comprehensive technical review of existing literature and a synthesis of current understanding of the governing physics behind the interaction of multiple fuel injections, ignition, and combustion behavior of multiple-injections in diesel engines. Multiple-injection is a widely adopted operating strategy applied in modern compression-ignition engines, which involves various combinations of small pre-injections and post-injections of fuel before and after the main injection and splitting the main injection into multiple smaller injections. This strategy has been conclusively shown to improve fuel economy in diesel engines while achieving simultaneous NOX, soot, and combustion noise reduction - in addition to a reduction in the emissions of unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) and CO by preventing fuel wetting and flame quenching at the piston wall.

In early phases of conceptual design stages for developing a new car in the modern automobile industry, the lack of systematic methodology to efficiently converge to an agreement between the aesthetics and aerodynamic performance tremendously increases budget and time. During these procedures, one of the most important tasks is to create geometric information which is versatilely morphable upon the demands of both of stylists and engineers. In this perspective, this paper proposes a Spline-based Modeling Algorithm (SMA) to implement into performing aerodynamic design optimization research based on CFD analysis. Once a 3-perspective schematic of a car is given, SMA regresses the backbone boundary lines by using optimum polynomial interpolation methods with the best goodness of fit, eventually reconstructing the 3D shape by linearly interpolating from the extracted boundaries minimizing loss of important geometric features.

One the most critical barriers to the advancement of Personal Air Vehicles in today's market environment is that the technological capabilities can never seem to outweigh the risks associated with financing such an endeavor. To address such a need, a system dynamics approach with the capability to model the uncertainties in the supply chain is presented in this paper. The overall modeling framework is first presented and the modeling process of the various relevant elements, such as demand prediction and manufacturer analysis, is then described. The aim of this research is ultimately to assess the viability of a next-generation aircraft program beyond the static confines of a net present value approach, through the inclusion of dynamic events and uncertainties that can occur throughout the life-cycle of the aircraft.

A technique is proposed for examining complex behaviors in the “pilot - vehicle - operational conditions” system using an autonomous situational model of flight. The goal is to identify potentially critical flight situations in the system behavior early in the design process. An exhaustive set of flight scenarios can be constructed and modeled on a computer by the designer in accordance with test certification requirements or other inputs. Distinguishing features of the technique include the autonomy of experimentation (the pilot and a flight simulator are not involved) and easy planning and quick modeling of complex multi-factor flight cases. An example of mapping airworthiness requirements into formal scenarios is presented. Simulation results for various flight situations and aircraft types are also demonstrated.

Although the design phase can account for a sizable amount of the resources consumed during the product realization process, the time and costs associated with the design process are often neglected when making design decisions. To investigate this issue, we define a process-centric decision model in which the design-phase consumption of resources, such as time and money, is explicitly modeled. While it is clear that the utility of a design is almost always directly impacted by the monetary costs of the design process, our decision model also accounts for the fact that the profit earned by a product depends strongly on its launch date. The decision model allows us thus to consider the trade-off between the time necessary for analysis and the improvement in product quality that results from the analysis. The decision model is sufficiently generic that almost any set of beliefs about the alternatives or analyses, as well as any utility-based preference structure can be modeled.

This paper describes research and development for reducing the aerodynamic drag of heavy vehicles by demonstrating new approaches for the numerical simulation and analysis of aerodynamic flow. Experimental validation of new computational fluid dynamics methods are also an important part of this approach. Experiments on a model of an integrated tractor-trailer are underway at NASA Ames Research Center and the University of Southern California (USC). Companion computer simulations are being performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and California Institute of Technology (Caltech) using state-of-the-art techniques.

General Motors has introduced a Two-Mode Transmission (2-MT) that provides significant improvements over the Toyota THS-II transmission. These improvements are achieved by employing additional planetaries with clutches and brakes to switch from a Mode-1 to Mode-2 as vehicle speed increases. In addition the 2-MT has four fixed-gear ratios that provide for a purely mechanical energy path from the IC engine to the driven wheels with the electric machines also able to provide additional driving torque. The purpose of this present paper is to extend the methodology in a previous paper [1] to include the 2-MT, thereby presenting an analytic foundation for its operation. The main contribution in this analysis is in the definition of dimensionless separation factors, defined in each mode that govern the power split between the parallel mechanical and electrical energy paths from the IC engine to the driven wheels.

In today’s atmosphere of lower U.S. defense spending and reduced research budgets, determining how to allocate resources for research and design has become a critical and challenging task. In the area of aircraft design there are many promising technologies to be explored, yet limited funds with which to explore them. In addition, issues concerning uncertainty in technology readiness as well as the quantification of the impact of a technology (or combinations of technologies), are of key importance during the design process. The methodology presented in this paper details a comprehensive and structured process in which to explore the effects of technology for a given baseline aircraft. This process, called Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF), involves the creation of a forecasting environment for use in conjunction with defined technology scenarios. The advantages and limitations of the method will be discussed, as well its place in an overall methodology used for technology infusion.

For 2D surface temperature monitoring applications, a variant of Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) was evaluated computationally in this study. Literature examples of poor sensor performance in the center of the 2D domains away from the side electrodes motivated these efforts which seek to overcome some of the previously noted shortcomings. In particular, the use of ‘sensing skins’ with novel tailored baseline conductivities was examined using the EIDORS package for EIT. It was found that the best approach for detecting a temperature hot spot depends on several factors such as the current injection (stimulation) patterns, the measurement patterns, and the reconstruction algorithms. For well-performing combinations of these factors, customized baseline conductivities were assessed and compared to the baseline uniform conductivity.

Mixture formation in an optically accessible hydrogen-fueled engine was investigated using Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) of acetone as a fuel tracer. The engine was motored and fueled by direct high-pressure injection. This paper presents the evolution of the spatial distribution of the ensemble-mean equivalence ratio for six different combinations of nozzle design and injector geometry, each for three different injection timings after intake-valve closure. Asymmetric single-hole and 5-hole nozzles as well as symmetric 6-hole and 13-hole nozzles were used. For early injection, the low in-cylinder pressure and density allow the jet to preserve its momentum long enough to undergo extensive jet-wall and (for multi-hole nozzles) jet-jet interaction, but the final mixture is fairly homogeneous. Intermediately timed injection yields inhomogeneous mixtures with surprisingly similar features observed for all multi-hole injectors.

As a part of NASA’s efforts in space, options are being examined for an Artemis moon base project to be deployed. This project requires a system of interconnected, but separate, DC microgrids for habitation, mining, and fuel processing. This in-place use of power resources is called in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). These microgrids are to be separated by 9-12 km and each contains a photovoltaic (PV) source, energy storage systems (ESS), and a variety of loads, separated by level of criticality in operation. The separate microgrids need to be able to transfer power between themselves in cases where there are generation shortfall, faults, or other failures in order to keep more critical loads running and ensure safety of personnel and the success of mission goals. In this work, a 2 grid microgrid system is analyzed involving a habitation unit and a mining unit separated by a tie line.

An affordable technique is proposed for fast quantitative analysis of aerobatics and other complex flight domains of highly maneuverable aircraft. A generalized autonomous situational model of the “pilot (automaton) – vehicle – operational environment” system is employed as a “virtual test article”. Using this technique, a systematic knowledge of the system behavior in aerobatic flight can be generated on a computer, much faster than real time. This information can be analyzed via a set of knowledge mapping formats using a 3-D graphics visualization tool. Piloting and programming skills are not required in this process. Possible applications include: aircraft design and education, applied aerodynamics, flight control systems design, planning and rehearsal of flight test and display programs, investigation of aerobatics-related flight accidents and incidents, physics-based pilot training, research into new maneuvers, autonomous flight, and onboard AI.

RNG k-ε closure turbulence dissipation equations are evaluated employing the CFD code KIVA-3V Release 2. The numerical evaluations start by considering simple jet flows, including incompressible air jets and compressible helium jets. The results show that the RNG closure turbulence model predicts lower jet tip penetration than the "standard" k-ε model, as well as being lower than experimental data. The reason is found to be that the turbulence kinetic energy is dissipated too slowly in the downstream region near the jet nozzle exit. In this case, the over-predicted R term in RNG model becomes a sink of dissipation in the ε-equation. As a second step, the RNG turbulence closure dissipation models are further tested in complex engine flows to compare against the measured evolution of turbulence kinetic energy, and an estimate of its dissipation rate, during both the compression and expansion processes.